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March 23, 2018

KSU upsets Kentucky in grisly defensive effort. Expert Picks Inc. members cash in LARGE on the spread AND the moneyline! Check out our pre-game analysis writeup, sent to members hours before game time.

A popular narrative right now is how Kentucky has the easiest path out of any team remaining in the tournament to the Final Four. Kansas State has something to say about that. KSU is used to being the underdog, but plays tough against elite competition. They have 5 wins vs. top-50 KenPom rated teams this season. Kentucky has the name recognition, and the higher seed. They are also a very young, highly inexperienced squad with 8 of their top 9 players from last season not returning. They have gone through growing pains this season with 10 losses, many to inferior opponents (Florida x2, Auburn, Missouri, UCLA, South Carolina, Kansas, Tex A&M, Tennessee x2). They rely heavily on the 3-ball, with 41.9% of their points coming from beyond the arc. 
Kansas State is defensive specialists. They held offensive-minded Creighton to a stellar 9/34 (26%) from beyond the arc in the opening round, and kept star guard Marcus Foster to a measly 5 points. They followed this up by halting Cinderella UMBC, who shot 50% from beyond the arc vs. Virginia, to 27%. Expect KSU to step up and challenge Kentucky from deep, forcing misses and altering a young, inexperienced team’s game plan. Expect KSU to slow the game down and minimize Kentucky’s star players' point totals.
*KSU has been playing all tournament without star forward Dean Wade. While he isn’t expected to get dominant minutes, he told reporters he is ’98 percent’ and expects to play. The 6’1” forward is a first-team All-Big 12 performer averaging 16.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game.
*Reverse line movement alert: Despite up to 70% and $80,000 being bet on Kentucky on one particular sportsbook we have access to, the line has dropped from Kentucky -5.5 to Kentucky -5 on most books. We are still able to get +5.5 at MyBookie. +5 is also acceptable

Kansas State +5.5 (5 Units)
Kansas State Moneyline (1 Unit)