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Crosby Scores Goal of the Year Candidate: Experts Cash In Our Biggest Play of 2018

March 30, 2018

Check out our pre-game analysis sent to members hours before gametime.

Our NHL system has identified a large, confident play for Thursday night action. We will be backing the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight. Pittsburgh has extra motivation heading into this game. They look to fend off a season series sweep at the hand of New Jersey, having recently lost two close 1 goal games to the Devils. They are also fighting for significant playoff positioning, they can finish anywhere from 2nd in the division, to 8th in the conference. The Penguins can fall asleep in the middle of the season at times, but when the games are important, count on their veteran all-star leadership to show up down the stretch run.

The Penguins are 5-3-2 over their last 10, but are playing some seriously good hockey. Their underlying advanced statistics are off the charts. They are out chancing opposing teams in high-danger scoring areas at nearly a 2:1 ratio in this span and have a positive +6.28 Corsi For %. They are out possessing teams and getting the puck into dangerous areas. They are shooting just 9.28% from these high-danger areas and are still averaging 3.4 goals/game over their last 10. Keith Kinkaid has been playing well for NJ, taking over for Cory Schneider, but he is also used to backup minutes and is now starting for the 8th time in 9 games. Expect him to have a difficult time against Pittsburgh’s elite offensive talent tonight.

The Devils are 7-3 in their last 10, but their underlying analytics tell a very different story. They have been on the lucky end of numerous wins lately. Their shooting % from high-danger areas is a very inflated 15.8%. Contrary to the Penguins, they are getting out possesed with a -5.66 Corsi % and are being out chanced from high danger scoring chances at nearly a 1.5:1 ratio.

Penguins historically dominate possession in head-to-head matchup comparisons with the Devils as seen here in their H2H corsi comparisons:

We are trusting the underlying advanced statistics tonight. There is a 11.94% Corsi differential in the Penguins favor, and they are getting the puck in the high danger scoring chances at 2.5:1 ratio over the Devils in the last 10 games. A solid game from Murray and no unfortunate bounces and we are taking this one to the bank.

Auxilliary Stats:

Penguins 62-28 last 90 vs. Metro.

4-1 last 5 Thursday games.

9-3 last 12 games playing on 1 day of rest.