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EXPERTS CASH IN LARGE - 8 PAGE SUPERBOWL WRITEUP

February 6, 2017

Our Expert Picks Inc. team cashed in large on Super Bowl Sunday - Nailing the largest play of the year on the biggest platform. Our team and clients cashed in LARGE! Check out our 8 page writeup which was sent to clients before the game!


EXPERT PICKS INC: 2017 SUPER BOWL SELECTION

 

Super Bowl LI looks to be an epic matchup, and one for the history books. The high-flying, elite Falcons’ #1 offense, led by Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, have been decimating teams all season. On Sunday, they will be put to the ultimate test against one of the greatest dynasties in modern sports history. Tom Brady & Bill Belichick look to add to their legacy with yet another Super Bowl ring. The following is our Expert breakdown of Sunday’s big game, and of course, our 2017 Super Bowl selections:

HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUP (BASIC STATISTICAL CATEGORIES):

A nearly last league-ranked passing defense does not bode well vs. a Tom Brady led team.  Brady is surely going to exploit the Falcons’ biggest team deficiency, and execute their passing defense by a death of a thousand cuts. Like we have seen him do countless times before, he is going to pull out his scalpel and slowly give the Falcons defense little knicks and cuts all over their body until they bleed out. New England will hold onto the ball this way, maintain possession (minimizing ATL’s offensive opportunities), drive methodically down the field and capitalize on their Red Zone Opportunities (SEE NEXT SUBSECTION).

 

In attempts to make this seem like it will be an epically close matchup in all categories, mainstream media is talking about ‘The Underrated’’ Falcons defense, led by Vic Beasley Jr. THIS IS COMPLETE MEDIA BS! While Beasley was the NFL’s sack leader this season (15.5), he has yet to record a sack this post-season and is their only threat to Tom Brady. The next highest-ranking Falcon’s D-lineman in regular season sacks was Adrian Clayborn, coming in at 73rd with a whopping 4.5 sacks all season. He is not playing in the Super Bowl (torn bicep).

 

Everyone knows the secret to defeating Tom Brady is a ruthless, relentless pass rush and the Falcons don’t have anything close to this. Don’t listen to overhyped media BS; statistics don’t lie. The Falcons ranked 16th in the league in QB sacks and 15th in sack yards.

 

Combine an average pass rush; with an abysmal pass defense, and we are expecting a textbook, surgical performance from Tom Brady and the Patriots offense.

 

RED ALERT FOR ATLANTA: PATRIOTS WILL DOMINATE THE RED ZONE

 

Red Zone proficiency on the offensive and defensive side of the ball is a massive deciding factor in any football game, especially in a Championship. Just ask the Seattle Seahawks how important Red Zone capitalization is. They are still having Malcolm Butler PTSD nightmares.

 

This is another crucial aspect of the game, which heavily favors the New England Patriots, and in our opinion, will become another deciding factor in the Super Bowl.

Bottom of the barrel: The Falcons’ 25th overall ranked defense was 32nd in the NFL a.k.a. DEAD LAST in opponent Red Zone touchdown conversion percentage this season. Opponents converted touchdowns, not field goals…touchdowns, 72.1% of the time when reaching the Red Zone. This is also the worst percentage of any defense to EVER appear in a Super Bowl.

 

On the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots and Falcons had a near identical Red Zone TD conversion percentage: NE (63.77%) ATL (63.16%). However, on the defensive side, the Patriots held a respectable 50% opponent TD conversion percentage, ranking them 6th in the NFL. Over their last 3 games (week 17, AFC Divisional, AFC Championship) they have minimized that opponent conversion percentage to an elite 37.50%. We expect the Falcons to do damage between the 20-yard lines on Sunday, but Belichick certainly knows how to get his team to clamp down in the red zone and prevail in the most crucial aspects of the game.

 

In Atlanta’s last loss which was in week 13 vs. the Chiefs, who have very comparable defensive red zone statistics to the Patriots (45.61% opponent TD conversion percentage) we saw Matt Ryan and the Falcons fail to reach the end zone when the field tightened up in the Red Zone. 3 lengthy drives failed to convert into TD’s; two resulted in field goals, one a turnover on downs.

 

FALCONS (BARELY) WON’T SCORE 30 POINTS: THEIR MAGIC NUMBER

 

Atlanta has relied solely on their offensive prowess to win football games this season, and they have a magic number they need to hit in order to win: 30 points. Atlanta is undefeated this season when scoring 30+ points and are 1-4 when failing to put up 30; their one win coming against the lowly Jaguars.

 

History says Bill Belichick has a high probability of slowing down the Falcons’ point total. He has faced the number 1 ranked scoring offense 13 times in his head-coaching career. On average, Belichick’s defenses have lowered the number one offenses point totals per game by 8.5 

points. Projecting this onto the Falcons’ 33.8 PPG total, we get 26.3 points. We will be the first ones to point out this is a highly speculative method of projection, however, he has not always had the number 1 ranked scoring defense when shutting down the number 1 ranked scoring offense. We fully expect this Belichick-led, league-best defense; with extra preparation time, to minimize this offense’s average point total in the 5-10 range.

 

OFFENSE WINS GAMES, DEFENSE (AND EXPERIENCE) WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS

 

The biggest cliché in sports! But, oh so true it is (statistically speaking).  As we mentioned above, this will be the 8th time in Super Bowl history that the number 1 scoring offense has faced off against the number 1 scoring defense…and the defense has dominated these matchups. Even when it’s not a clear-cut number 1 vs. number 1, the amount of times the better defense has prevailed in Super Bowls is staggering (ex. Broncos-Panthers, 2016). Ironically enough, the last time Bill Belichick and the Patriots held the elite number 1 offense (a record-setting one at that, 36.8 PPG), was 2008, when the New York Giants, and the higher ranked defense, walked away with the trophy.

 

The Falcons’ 33.8 points per game, and the Patriots’ 15.6 points allowed per game presents an 18.2 point difference. This is the second biggest clash in cultures in modern Super Bowl history, second to only the 2014 Broncos (elite offense)-Seahawks (elite defense) affair, which saw Seattle rout Denver 43-8.

 

A score that lopsided is a Super Bowl anomaly, and we are not expecting a rout. However, you have to love the defensive history of Super Bowl winning teams, and the unparalleled experience Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the rest of the New England Patriots bring to the table.

 

The Patriots have 21 players who have appeared in at least one Super Bowl. The Falcons have 4 players with Super Bowl experience. The Falcons’ already highly questionable defense is the first-ever defense to feature 4 starting rookies in a Super Bowl.

 

Yes, this is Falcons head coach Dan Quinn’s first time facing off against Bill Belichick. Add in the pressure of a Super Bowl and we don’t like his chances of winning his debut chess match vs. Belichick.

VEGAS ALWAYS WINS: PUBLIC BETTING PERCENTAGES

 

Super Bowl: The mecca for sports betting and Vegas’ favorite and most profitable day of the year. The books nail the Super Bowl spread 98% of the time so paying close attention to public betting activity is crucial.

 

The Public Actually Likes Atlanta –

 

Betting Websites Oddshark & Covers are go-to’s for average-Joe bettors and are massive public betting influencers. Oddshark’s free ‘Expert’ predictions are far from reliable and accurate, and are influencing an Atlanta cover and a win. Public Consensus % on Covers shows the general public of the average-Joe bettors who visit their website are on the Falcons:

Sportsbook Insiders: We have held discussions with a few of our sportsbook insiders and friends working in Vegas who have shed some insight into the activity there. At one book, 69% of the bets and 73% of the money is being bet on the Patriots -3. However, 77% of the money and 83% of bets are on the Falcons to win moneyline at +140.  The largest high-roller bets to come in at this book have been on the Falcons ML.  The over is attracting 78% of the money and 84% of the bets.

 

How Vegas will maximize profit: It is our impression that the sportsbooks will maximize profits by a 1-3 point Patriots victory. 1-2 points will be their pinnacle of profit, raking in all Patriots spread bets, as well as the high volume of people looking to cash in on well-paying Falcons ML odds. They will still be ecstatic with a 3-point Patriots victory and a push on the line. The books also have a lot to gain in this game going under the total, as a massive consensus is expecting a shootout and the over.

 

OUR EXPERT PICKS!

 

Our team is extremely confident that the New England Patriots will once again be Super Bowl Champions come Sunday night. However, we are mitigating risk and avoiding the spread because of public betting percentage factors:

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ML – 20 UNITS

 

We will also be fading the public on the over/under and will be placing a supplementary bet on the total. ***We have received intel that the total may continue to go up a few points as a majority of the public is on the over. Wait until half hour before the game to place this under bet to get in at best possible number***

 

UNDER – 5 UNITS

 

BONUS FINAL GAME SCORE PREDICTION:

 

PATRIOTS: 31 FALCONS: 27