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FRISCO BOWL RECAP (NCAAF): OHIO -2.5 ANALYSIS

December 20, 2018

Our predictive model nailed the Frisco Bowl, finding a convincing winner in Ohio -2.5 More Bowl Game winners to come.

OHIO-2.5 (2 UNITS)

 

 

 

SAN DIEGO STATE -

TOTAL OFFENSIVE INDEX RANKING: 118

TOTAL DEFENSIVE INDEX RANKING: 35

EPI NATION RANKING: 92

OHIO:

TOTAL OFFENSIVE INDEX RANKING: 118

TOTAL DEFENSIVE INDEX RANKING: 35

EPI NATION RANKING: 30

 

MODEL PREDICTION: OHIO 35.6, SAN DIEGO STATE 19.4

OHIO WIN PROBABILITY: 64.2%

Top-right of the visual are your elite teams. Bottom-left are pretenders. Bottom-right and top-left show teams with proficiencies on one side of the ball, with weaknesses on the other. This is the exact kind of matchup we have here tonight, with the offensively charged Ohio Bobcats taking on defensively solid San Diego State Aztecs. A deeper look into the metrics shows Ohio is the far better team, grouped with higher quality competition and we will be supporting the Bobcats tonight. A popular majority of general public dollars supporting the Aztecs has allowed the line to come down to -2.5, providing us with a great opportunity to capitalize on Ohio.

Ohio and SDS are two teams heading in opposite directions. After starting the season 6-1, holding opponents to 16.3 points/game, SDS has struggled tremendously in the back half of the year. They dropped 4 of their last 5, including their last 3, allowing opponents to score 26.4 points/game, +10.1points above their first-half season average. SDS average’s the 18th fewest points/game offensively and we have them -108 ranks worse from Ohio’s elite offensive unit.

Ohio, meanwhile, is ready to compete in their 4th consecutive Bowl game after putting together an 8-4 record, including wins in 4 of their last 5 games. 2 of their 4 losses this season came on the road in Virginia and Cincinnati, teams that are some point were ranked in the Top-25. Their offense is led by a dangerous trio in QB Nathan Rourke (2225 passing yards, 22 passing TD’s, 7 INT’s, 816 rushing yards, 12 rushing TD’s), RB AJ Oullette (1142 rushing yards, 12 TD’s), WR Papi White (58 catches – 897 yards, 9 TD’s).  Together, they led an Ohio offense to 41.2 points/game (10th in nation), including the 8th most rushing yards/game with 262.2. Their weak defensive metrics are a result of higher quality competition, but we do see big-play ability. They rank 5th in the nation with a +1.08 turnover margin, including the 14th-most INT’s (15) and the 2nd-most fumble recoveries (15). Nathan Rourke is as dangerous of a dual-threat as you can get. He averages 8.8 yards/attempt (10th nationally) and 6.5 per rush.

Ohio’s 8 wins this season have been by an average of +24.6 points. Ohio is 7-3 (70%) straight up and ATS in their last 10 games with an average margin of victory of +26.29. Up to 68% of the public is backing the Aztecs as a trendy dog and we are looking forward to being on the right side of a convincing Ohio performance.