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MLB PICKS APRIL 22 - ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES PICK & ANALYSIS

April 22, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

UPDATED TOFI (TOTAL OFFENSIVE INDEX) RANKINGS:

 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+120)

Arizona is 5-2 in their last 7 games (71.4%), 4-2 in their last 6 games on the road (66.6%), 8-1 in their last 9 versus Pittsburgh (88.8%) and have won 6 consecutive games at PNC Park in Pittsburgh (100%). The Pirates currently sit 26th on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) rankings with a -10.3 efficiency. They have a current 28th ranked .191 team batting average and have scored a 27th ranked 68 runs over the past month. This is a staggering -44 runs less than Arizona, who have an 11th ranked scoring offense in the same span. In the eyes of the public this game is all about the starting pitchers with Godley’s 6.26 ERA versus Musgrove’s 0.81 ERA. Up to 70% of public bets are supporting the Pirates, yet we have seen fairly significant reverse line movement back Arizona’s way. This is an overreaction and to early pitching stats and both guys are career 4.00 ERA starters playing above and below their means. Arizona has a much deadlier offense with a dominant historical head-to-head and PNC Park record. We will be capitalizing on this generous +120 value.