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MLB PICKS APRIL 30 - CHICAGO CUBS VS SEATTLE MARINERS PICK & ANALYSIS

April 30, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

CHICAGO CUBS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (-147)

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games (70%) and are one of the hottest current offensive teams sitting 5th on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) rankings with a +4.5 efficiency, +21 ranks ahead of the Mariners who have undergone a serious regression and sit 26th with a -6 efficiency. Over the past 7 days, Seattle is batting a 30th ranked team .201 average and have scored a 24th ranked 24 runs. The Cubs are batting a 13th ranked .249 team average and have scored a 7th ranked 33 runs in this span (+9 runs more than Seattle). The Mariners have thrived off HR power this season but have hit a 30th ranked 3 HR’s over this 7-day span and have a 22nd ranked .310 On-Base %. The long-ball has dried up for Seattle and they don’t know how to play small-ball, which has had a detrimental effect on their offense. The Cubs are one of the hottest HR hitting teams right now with 12 over the past week. Opposing batters are hitting just .190 off of Hamels this season and will be a tough challenge for Seattle’s regressive offense currently batting just .201 as a team. He has an impressive 3.16 ERA and 0.99 WHIP (Walks Hits per Inning Pitched) through a healthy 31.1 inning sample size.

Both the Cubs and Mariners have thrived as favorites this year. Seattle is 8-2 as a favorite, and just 10-11 as the underdog, while the Cubs are 11-5 as the favorite and just 3-5 as the underdog. The much hotter offensive team wins as the favorite tonight, and we are willing to eat the -VIG to come away with a Cubs win in Seattle.