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MLB PICKS JULY 11 - TEXAS RANGERS VS HOUSTON ASTROS PICK & ANALYSIS

July 11, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

TEXAS RANGERS MONEYLINE: 2 UNITS (+110)

The Texas Rangers were the most profitable team to support in the first half of the MLB season, and what better way to kick off the second half than to support them once again at home in Arlington as underdogs where they have racked up the units. The Rangers have netted bettors a staggering +15.80 return on the season (+16.50 units at home, -0.7 units on the road). Despite their 57-33 record, the Astros sit just 11th on the money standings with a minimal +1.27 unit return (including a -3.10 unit deficit on the road). 

Other favorable money trends for Texas this season: 

14-7 (+11.4 units) at home versus divisional rivals.

31-28 (+9.4 units) in night games.

18-17 (+7.8 units) versus teams with a winning record.

Let's take an in-depth look into tonight's match-up specifically:

Lance Lynn versus Framber Valdez provides an advantageous pitching matchup for Texas featuring the Rangers' most winning starter this year (11-4), with Texas winning 66.6% of his 18 starts overall. Lynn is 5-0 with a 2.89 ERA over his last 7 starts with a highly impressive 53 K's, and just 4 BB's over his last 47 innings. In addition to his lights out recent play, Texas provides Lynn with tremendous run support this season averaging 6.47 runs per game when he takes the mound. 

Framber Valdez is a stop-gap option for Houston. He was briefly optioned to AAA after his last start on June 26th, giving up 6 runs in just 3 innings. Despite winning 63.3% of their games this season, the Astros are just 7-11 (38.8%) in games Valdez makes an appearance in, and since being moved into the rotation, the Astros are just 1-3 (25%) in games where he starts where he has a 6.52 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. 

Despite pitching 70 more innings than Valdez this season, if we take an in-depth look into both starters' advanced metrics, we see Lynn has more impressive metrics in nearly every major predictive category:

Houston has historically struggled in their state rival's Arlington stadium going 42-57 (42.4%) all-time, including just 2-4 (33.3%) this season. As we previously mentioned, the Rangers have been incredibly dominant and profitable at home with a 29-17 (63%) record and they are the 3rd highest scoring home team averaging 5.65 runs per game.