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MLB PICKS JUNE 21 - MIAMI MARLINS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES PICK & ANALYSIS

June 21, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

MIAMI MARLINS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+190)

 

Public bettors are absolutely slamming the Phillies tonight as one of the most popular bets of Friday's card, even with a Red Sox -360 line on the board. Aaron Nola's name brand status and 6-1 record is blinding bettors into thinking he is having another terrific season. In reality, he has been sub-par. His strikeout metrics are still there, however, he is getting hit around with a .270 opposing batting average, has career worst walk metrics (4/9 IP), an inflated 1.51 WHIP, and is giving up 1-2 HR's in every start. In Nola's last 3 starts, he has an alarming 7.71 ERA. Sandy Alcantara has a lower opposing average, lower ERA, lower WHIP and drastically lower HR/against metrics. Alcantara has allowed 1 run or fewer in an impressive 30% of his 14 starts this seasonThe Phillies also rank 21st on our WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and TOFI (Total Offensive Index) rankings, and have lost 6 of their last 7 games and 8 of their last 10 games. This is just ridiculous -VIG inflation for a mediocre performing pitcher and a team in a serious regression. Miami has actually been in the upper-half of the MLB this season in profits on the road netting bettors a +3.95 unit return as the visiting team and they provide a tremendous opportunity to capitalize on nearly 2:1 value tonight.