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MLB PICKS MAY 1 - COLORADO ROCKIES VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS PICK & ANALYSIS

May 1, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

COLORADO ROCKIES MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+130)

 

Wins Above Replacement Ranking: 13th (Brewers: 16th)

Total Offensive Index Ranking: 15th (Brewers: 20th)

Total Defensive Index Ranking: 10th (Brewers: 9th)

Christian Yelich dominated headlines, but the Brewers as a team were perfectly mediocre in April going 14-14 (50%). As a result, they currently sit 16th on our WAR rankings, -3 spots behind the Rockies who rank 13th. Colorado has rapidly improved since April 14th after a disastrous start to the season. In the last 2 weeks to finish off April, the Rockies went 10-5 (66.6%) with a +23 run differential. They have rapidly shot up our WAR rankings as a result (ranked 30th on April 1st). Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela is off to the best start of his career with a 2-1 record, 3.93 ERA. Colorado has won both of his road starts where he sports a 2.92 ERA. Senzatela has the best runners left-on-base % in his career, stranding runners 77.6% of the time and the lowest walks per 9 innings at 2.45 in his career. Still a small sample size for Senzatela, but he has been impressive enough to support versus a current mediocre Brewers offense who has sat out Christian Yelich the past 2 games with a back injury. The Brewers are the most popular bet of today's slate with up to 75-80% of the public supporting them. The Rockies provide a great contrarian option today at + value.