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MLB PICKS MAY 10 - KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES PICK & ANALYSIS

May 10, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

KANSAS CITY ROYALS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+131)

 

Shocking revelation of the day: Homer Bailey has been just as good as Jake Arrieta this season. Their walk rate is the same and their HR against rates are the same. Bailey has a slightly higher strikeout %, while Arrieta has slightly lower opposing batting average and WHIP. Bailey has received some much deserved criticism the past few years, but he is having a respectable season. The point is, this pitching matchup isn't as discrepant as public narratives may suggest. The betting public is all over Philadelphia, making the Phillies are the most popular bet of the night; receiving up to 85% of support. Despite this, we have seen some reverse line movement going the Royals direction. 8 of the Royals' 13 wins have come at home this season, while Philadelphia is just 7-8 on the road (46.6%) and 3-4 (42.8%) as the road underdog. Hunter Dozier is the most dangerous weapon heading into this game. Over the past month, Dozier leads the AL with a ridiculous .400 batting average, .497 on-base %, and .778 SLG%. Look for him to have a big game.