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MLB PICKS MAY 11 - CHICAGO CUBS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS PICK & ANALYSIS

May 11, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

CHICAGO CUBS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (-122)

 

Zach Davies has the lowest ERA out of any starter in the MLB right now which is sucking in a bunch of public bettors to support the Brewers at seemingly generous plus odds. This is a trap and it is honestly perplexing how Davies has managed to preserve such a low ERA through 40.1 innings of work. His underlying metrics are far from impressive and he is due to get tagged any start now. Davies is allowing an opposing .242 batting average with average to even sub-par strikeout metrics. Through a nearly identical sample size, Hamels has recorded a staggering 18 more strikeouts than Davies and is holding opposing batters to a highly impressive .202 batting average. Davies has an incredibly high left-on-base % of 87.6%, but isn't striking out many batters and is still giving up an above average amount of hits. The Brewers defense has certainly bailed him out this season and he has been the beneficiary of strong fielding and double-plays. The Cubs are red-hot right now and we are expecting them to break through the defensive barrier which has been supporting Davies' 1.56 ERA smokescreen. They are 10-2 over their last 12 games (83.3%) and have scored the 3rd most amount of runs over this 2 week span (71). They are 9-3 in their last 12 games at home (75%) and are 17-7 (70.8%) as the favorite this season.