< View All Articles

MLB PICKS MAY 13 - MINNESOTA TWINS VS LOS ANGELES ANGELS PICK & ANALYSIS

May 13, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

LOS ANGELES ANGELS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+124)

 

This is a public fade. The Twins are receiving up to 80% of public support. As money has continued to pour in on Minnesota throughout the day, we have identified fairly significant reverse line movement. Despite already being bombarded with Twins ML bets, oddsmakers continue to encourage public support on the Twins by decreasing -VIG, and have eliminated Angels + value by up to .15 points. 

 

This overwhelming public support is a result of Jose Berrios' presence on the mound, who has been one of the best starters so far this season. Berrios no doubt presents a tremendous obstacle for the Angels tonight and has incredible metrics through 53.1 innings of work. We don't simply auto-fade teams who are massively popular bets. We need to find what the oddsmakers are seeing to keep encouraging Twins support. We have identified a red-hot Angels' offense that has the potential to counteract Berrios' presence tonight. Over the last 2 weeks, the Angels have one of the best records in the MLB at 10-5 (66.6%). In this span, they rank 3rd on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) rankings. In this span, they have a top-10 team batting average (.267), slugging % (.477), on-base % (.326), runs scored (56), and HR's hit (19). The Angels' offense is as good as anybody's at the moment and are candidates to give Berrios his first satisfactory start since April 20th when he allowed 4 runs in 6 innings to the Orioles. Tyler Skaggs is a volatile pitcher. He has allowed 0,1,2 runs in 4 of his 6 starts this season, but has been tagged for 4 and 7 runs in his other appearances. His strikeout metrics are almost comparable to Berrios' and his HR's allowed metrics are the exact same with both giving up 1.18 HR's per 9 innings pitched. If the good Skaggs shows up and he can duel Berrios for a close game into the bullpen innings, the Angels and their red-hot offense have a tremendous chance to win this game. The oddsmakers know this and we look forward to being on the right, contrarian side of this game at + value.