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MLB PICKS MAY 18 - ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS VS SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS PICK & ANALYSIS

May 18, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (-120)

 

The Giants' achilles heel this year has been a stagnant offense averaging just 3.8 runs per game. They have been hot in May, however, scoring 6 runs per game since May 3, ranking 2nd in the NL in that span. They are averaging 1.55 HR's per game in this span. Expect Buster Posey to gift the offense an extra lift. He had 2 hits yesterday and has 153 hits against Arizona in his career, 5th most all-time among Diamondbacks opponents. 

 

Madison Bumgarner hasn't been the unhittable elite ace of previous years, but he still has tremendous metrics and is trending back towards his old self. He also remains a way more reliable option to support over Zack Godley, who has been abysmal this season for Arizona. Godley is 1-3 with a 7.65 ERA through 10 appearances. He has been relegated to the bullpen in 3 of his past 4 appearances where he has record a 6.68 ERA. He is allowing a .286 opposing batting average, has high HR against metrics, low strikeout metrics and high walk metrics. He is putting 1.73 batters on base per inning and has an awful left-on-base percentage of just 59.4%, meaning 40.6% of batters that reach base end up scoring. Bumgarner has the highest opposing batting average of his career at .260 (still 26 points below Godley), but he still has elite stuff striking out 25.3% of batters faced, walking only 3.5% in the process. 

 

Arizona has thrived on the road netting bettors +8.53 units, but have been pedestrian at home with a -1.69 unit deficit. The Diamondbacks are just 4-11 (26.6%) in their last 15 Saturday games and 4-8 in their last 12 (33.3%) meetings with NL West divisional rival Giants. San Francisco's offense is trending upwards and will get an opportunity to further pad their stats versus Zack Godley and we feel extremely comfortable with Madison Bumgarner on the mound.