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MLB PICKS MAY 2 - LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS PICK & ANALYSIS

May 2, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

LOS ANGELES ANGELS -1.5 RUNLINE: 1 UNIT (+135)

Wins Above Replacement Ranking: 7th (Blue Jays: 23rd)

Total Offensive Index Ranking: 6th (Blue Jays: 19th)

Total Defensive Index Ranking: 24th (Blue Jays: 18th)

 

The Jays have historically struggled tremendously versus the Angels and both teams sit at different ends of our WAR rankings making us confident in a lopsided Angels win tonight in Anaheim. The Jays are just 2-6 in their last 8 games versus the Angels (25%), and 2-5 in their last 7 games in Anaheim (28.5%). The Angels are red-hot winning 5 of their last 6 games (83.3%), and sit 7th on our WAR rankings, +16 ranks ahead of Toronto who sit at 23rd. Aaron Sanchez has good stats at first glance with a 2.32 ERA, but he is playing with fire. Sanchez has a 5.31 walks/9 rate which is the highest of his career. He has already walked 20 batters through 31 innings. The Angels rank 7th in the majors with a 10% walk percentage. Look for this to come up in the Angels scouting report on Sanchez and for them to take an abundance of free bases in this game. Skaggs has a smaller sample size, but possesses better underlying metrics than Sanchez. A slight 55-60% majority of the public is supporting the Blue Jays at a seemingly generous price with one of their aces in Sanchez on the mound. Despite this, we have seen reverse line movement with the odds continuing to climb 25 points in the Angels favor. The oddsmakers must see the same data as us, because we are expecting a red-hot Angels team to expose Sanchez's control issues. The good thing about supporting the Angels on the runline is that when they win, they win big. The run line is 12-2 in their 14 wins. The Angels average 6.5 runs per game with a striking .840 OPS in their victories.