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MLB PICKS MAY 2 - MINNESOTA TWINS VS HOUSTON ASTROS PICK & ANALYSIS

May 2, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

TODAY'S INVESTMENTS:

 

MINNESOTA TWINS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (-110)

Wins Above Replacement Ranking: 10th (Astros: 20th)

Total Offensive Index Ranking: 9th (Astros: 24th)

Total Defensive Index Ranking: 12th (Astros: 22nd)  

 

Houston has been stellar at home this season, but sub-par on the road with an 8-10 record (44.4%), with a -5.16 unit deficit for bettors. The Astros have won just 1 of their last 5 road games (20%) and have slipped down to 20th on our WAR rankings, with a 24th ranked TOFI and 22nd ranked TODI. These are all 10+ rankings behind the Twins who round out the top-10 of our WAR rankings as the best current performing teams. Despite the public siding with Houston in this matchup, we have identified reverse line movement with the odds shifting 25 points; now making Minnesota the favorite at -110. The Twins are a dominant 12-3 as the favorite this season (80%), and have been the best day time team with a 9-3 record in the afternoon (75%). They have profited +2.79 units at home thus far. Minnesota currently sits 9th on our TOFI rankings. They are absolutely crushing the ball and lead the MLB in HR's over the past 30, 14, 7 day sample sizes. They also bring their ace to the mound today in Jose Berrios, who has had one of the best starts to his season out of all MLB starters. Berrios has been a strikeout machine 41 K's to just 8 walks through a 39.1 inning sample size. He has a 2.97 ERA and an highly impressive 0.97 WHIP (walks hits per innings pitched). Berrios is the epitome of consistency and has thrown 6+ innings in each of his 6 starts, with 7-10 K's and rarely giving up more than 2 runs. Berrios is facing a regressing Astros offense today who have struggled on the road and he will give the Twins a phenomenal chance to win today.