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MLB PICKS MAY 6 - MINNESOTA TWINS VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS PICK & ANALYSIS

May 6, 2019

MLB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

MINNESOTA TWINS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+102)

Wins Above Replacement Ranking: 23rd (Blue Jays: 27th)

Total Offensive Index Ranking: 26th (Blue Jays: 27th)

Total Defensive Index Ranking: 14th (Blue Jays: 18th)

 

Marcus Stroman's 2.20 ERA is deceiving and his numbers are due for an inflation. He is a volatile pitcher. His strikeouts are high (36), but so is the amount of batters that he walks (16). His 1.20 WHIP (Walks Hits per Innings Pitched) is league average and his ERA should probably be in the high-3's. The team doesn't play very well behind him either, supported by his 1-4 record. Toronto is going through a significant regression losing 7 of their last 11 games after a successful 6-1 span before that. They are currently at the bottom of our WAR (Wins Above Replacement) rankings at 27th, with a current 27th ranked offense on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index). The Blue Jays are batting a current 25th ranked .211 team average and have scored a T-26th ranked 16 runs over the last week. The Blue Jays haven't given Marcus Stroman much run support, but the opposite is true for Martin Perez who has a 4-0 record. The Twins absolutely mash when he's been on the mound and he is receiving 7.1 runs of support per game through 7 starts. The Twins have won 7 out of their last 10 games (70%) and 11 of their last 16 games (68.7%). They average 1.3 more runs per game than Toronto and have been the 2nd most profitable team to support this season netting bettors a +6.37 unit profit.