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MLB SEASON INVESTING PREVIEW - 2020

March 10, 2020

MLB INVESTING SEASON PREVIEW

Complex Sports Metrics Digested For You Into Profitable Betting Information

MLB Spring Training has begun! This is an extremely exciting time for us at Expert Betting Network, as it is time to launch our historically most profitable investing system since our company inception in 2013. For our loyal members who have been with us for numerous years, you have seen the vast development of our MLB system in terms of content, and most importantly, results. Baseball is the most analytical sport in the world and we are able to harness the extensive amounts of data available. This data has tremendous predictive qualities, allows us to generate an accurate forecast, while providing you with easy-to-digest and desirable premium content and analysis. Here’s what we have in store for you in 2020:

 Predictive Model & Simulation Software – Fueled By Advanced Analytics

Game Simulation Example From 2019 ^

A daily predictive model which is fueled by advanced analytics. Our model uses a wide array of metrics which have tremendous predictive qualities. Using these metrics, we simulate the outcomes of games and are given a final predicted score. Our team then goes through the results and seeks out the best opportunities for value.

A preview of the data we use:

TT: Team Total Projected Runs – We calculate each team’s runs using the following factors and crunch them to get a clean run number projection, Team Offensive Number — We project the lineup vs. opponent’s handedness and league/interleague. Left/right — home/away splits and overall numbers are combined in our unique combination equation to get the raw offensive numbers for each team on the card, Opponent Defensive Number – Based on our run rating for opponents pitching ratings and defensive runs saved/cost, Projected Plate Appearances – A unique formula based on offensive and defensive analytics, HR: Home Runs, R: Runs RBI: Runs Batted In, AVG: Team Batting Average, BB%: Walk Percentage, K%: Strikeout Percentage, OBP: On-Base Percentage, SLG%: Slugging %, WAR: Wins Above Replacement, TOFI: Total Offensive Index Ranking, SxIP: Starting Pitcher expected innings pitched, ERA: Earned Run Average, HR’s allowed/9, SP: Proprietary Starting Pitcher rating, RxIP: Relief expected innings pitched, RLF: Proprietary Relief Pitcher rating.  FLD: Proprietary fielding rating, DEF: Proprietary defense rating, OFF: Proprietary Offensive rating, H/A: Home vs Away Splits, L/R: Left vs Right Splits, GB: Ground Ball team projection tendency. The higher the more ground balls on average, FB: Fly Ball team projection tendency. The higher the more flyballs on average, URAT: Umpire total run rating, PFR: Park Factors (right-handed batters), PFL: Park Factors (left-handed batters)

Eliminate Juice (-VIG), Find Discrepancy in Betting Lines, Seek the Best Value, Attain Realistic Winning Percentages

Our predictive models allow us to determine what a betting line should be, find discrepancies in the market and capitalize on lines that indicate the best value. This allows us to minimize -VIG (juice), capitalize on well-paying underdogs and lower the obligatory winning percentage we will need to hit for guaranteed profits into an extremely reasonable 48-51% range. Daily -VIG is the sportsbooks’ predatory way of guaranteeing profits for themselves. By eliminating their crutch, we are gaining a massive advantage in the market.

Monitor Public Betting Percentages

MLB is known for amateur public bettors chasing big name pitchers with heavily juiced lines. We evaluate everything. There are often phenomenal investing opportunities, with value, in fading these popular public plays. An ace for a team may be taking the mound that day, but as a team they are batting .195 and headed for a serious regression, or have a bullpen with a .320 opponent batting average and 6.89 ERA over their last 5 games played.

 Clarity

The amount of noise in sports media right now is out of control. Turn off ESPN. We don’t spend one second watching mainstream media and irrelevant circular discussions about contract negotiations and trade rumors. How is a team playing? Is the Astros' 2017 World Series title tained? Who cares. Our job is to find out who is going to win tonight. What does their data tell us? Cutting through all the meaningless clutter and focusing on the metrics that really matter is our only concern.

Monitor Team Betting Performance/Identify Hot & Cold Streaks

Consistent updates and recaps on team betting performance. Who are the most profitable teams to bet on? What teams have been consistent deficit money pits? Treat teams like stocks and monitor their betting performance trends throughout the season. Ride the waves and avoid the cold streaks. The MLB season is extremely long. All teams go through ups and downs, regressions and progressions. Most division leaders still lose up to 40-45% of their games. By digesting large sets of data, we are able to identify hot and cold streaks and are able to capitalize accordingly by fading overvalued teams headed for a regression, or by supporting underappreciated teams lower in the standings that are headed for a hot streak.

Data Visualization

Easy to digest data visualization which will help you understand our thought process behind a certain selection (spray charts, pitcher heatmaps). A pitcher’s in-depth charts from his last 5 starts can identify declining velocity trends, or a team’s batting spray charts from the same sample size can foreshadow an abysmal performance versus a groundball pitcher. MLB teams are harnessing and utilizing all this data in order to gain an advantage over their opponent. Why wouldn’t we do the same thing in order to gain an advantage over the sportsbook?

Join Us For a Profitable and Positive Betting Experience for the 2020 MLB Season!

Take the stress out of your daily selections this summer. Allow our investing team to support you this season and embrace the wide array of tools we are able to provide for you, while enjoying the content and profits along the way.