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MLB SYSTEM RECAP: AUGUST 20-21

August 22, 2018

Gain an insider look into our VIP MLB Betting System. Here are our selections and write-ups for every pick we sent to members on AUG 20-21. We are 6-2, +8.26U this week and 12-4, +15.85U in the past 5 day span. $100/U bettors have profited $1585 in these

BRAVES ML 3 UNITS (+115)

A 6 game difference in current win-loss streaks (ATL 4L, PIT 2W) have the books labeling PIT a very trappy -125 home FAV. ATL has massive advantages in this game and we are going to exploit this line and take the + odds.

While on a 2 game win streak (as a result of current bottom ranked CHC), PIT has plummeted to the bottom of our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) at 27th as their bats have gone ice cold. Cubs managed just 4 runs all series and still managed to steal two games off PIT in 1-0 shutouts. 

While on a 4 game losing streak, ATL’s recent misfortune can be credited to pitching, but their bats remain top-5:

 

Can ATL pitching hold it together? We love Gausman in this matchup who has been lights out since joining ATL. Archer is quite the contrary.

INDIANS ML 1 UNIT (-103)

Averaging just 3.6 runs over their last 5 games and batting just a current team .210 (28th), compared to CLE’s .273 (9th), BOS is going through an extremely rare cold streak metric wise. Larger sample sizes keeps them in the top-5 of our TOFI, as they have been all season, but tonight we would like to capitalize on the first downswing in their analytical performance this season.

 

Not a good time to go through a performance dip when you have to face once-again Cy Young contender Corey Kluber. Kluber has been particularly nasty as of late compiling 1.78 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 26 Ks, 4 BB’s in 30.1 IP.

Porcello has been serviceable, but simply not on the same level. We feel we have the favorable batting and pitching matchups tonight in what should be a great game to follow.

RANGERS 1 UNIT (+171)

We are capitalizing on phenomenal value here as our metrics suggest this should be a more evenly priced matchup. Both teams showing extremely similar underlying numbers over 7, 14, 30 day sample sizes.

 

We have identified advantages and bet signals for a higher volume card today featuring low-unit, high-reward selections:

INDIANS ML 1 UNIT (+138)

Building off yesterday’s win and write-up, we look to continue to capitalize on a rare downswing in BOS performance. Averaging just 3.7 runs over their past 6 games, BOS remains at the bottom of our current TOFI (Total Offensive Index) at 27th.  Up to 85-90% of public jumping back on BOS after a rare loss, but the line hasn’t moved enough to justify this volume, showing the books are hesitant in their BOS confidence tonight.

PHILLIES ML 1 UNIT (+121)

WSH trending downwards going from 8th, 16th, to a current 22nd on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) over the past 30, 14, 7 day spans. Their team batting average has fallen .30 points from .278 to a current .248. PHI trending upwards going from 26th on our TOFI 14 days ago to a current 15th. Their team batting average has climbed .30 points in this span from .230 to a current .260. Velasquez & Roark have strikingly similar metrics. This is a + value play on a two teams moving in opposite directions on our offensive index.

TIGERS ML 1 UNIT (+180)

Cubs have been bottom-5 on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) consecutively over the past 30, 14, 7 day spans. Believe it or not, they even currently rank lower than PIT at 28. They have the current third worst team batting average at .210 and have scored the 29th, 29th, 28th lowest amount of runs over these same spans. DET currently performing at a respectable 17th on our TOFI and have a +19 run differential on CHC over the past 7 days. We are not too concerned about the pitching matchup in this one as CHC offence is simply non-existent right now. Zimmerman-Hendricks have both been unpredictable this year. We would like to say the books set this line too high, but the public is supporting their decision, heavily backing the Cubs -180 juice. Let’s capitalize on some incredible home + odds.

METS ML 1 UNIT (+102)

Mets: The hottest batting team in all of August. We’ve been hesitant to pull the trigger on NYM this month despite consistent impressive offensive performance, but tonight is too good to be true. This doesn’t happen often as we have two teams on complete opposite spectrums of our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) with NYM at 1 and SF at 30. NYM batting a current team, .301 (1st), SF current team .191 (30th). NYM have a staggering +50 run differential on SF over the past 7 days. These are not recent recent downswings and upswings for each respective team: NYM been 1-2, SF been 29-30 on TOFI for the past 30, 14, 7 day spans.  Matz is also vastly better than Stratton in crucial pitching metrics. Stratton sporting a high .289 opponent batting average this season (Matz .251). Matz has better Left on Base %, K%, and has a full point less on his ERA. Public still slightly backing SF at 55-60% despite these vastly different metrics. Line should be NYM -130 and we will be capitalizing on this discrepancy. 

REDS ML 1 UNIT (+170)

CIN has been quietly sneaking around outside the top 10 of our TOFI for the past 30, 14 days and have finally crept in at a current number 9. They are currently batting a team .277 (6th). MIL is just behind them on the TOFI at 11, but they have slipped outside top-10 for first time in 30 days, suggesting a potential downswing. Their team average has slipped to .254 (16th) and is down .20 points in this span. CIN has racked up 4 consecutive double-digit hit games, including 1 vs. Bumgarner in which our system capitalized on. Long-term pitching metrics favor Guerra over Romano but neither has been good of late. Romano gets solid 5.5 run support/game from CIN in 2018. We are looking for CIN’s bats to edge out MIL in a high-scoring game and to capitalize on tremendous +170 odds.