< View All Articles


October 3, 2018

Our MLB post-season started off with a bang, as we nailed our first pick cashing in on the Rockies Wild Card win over the Cubs at +120 value - Kyle Freeland pitched a gem - Game was decided by bullpen in extras - CHC offense continued to stay dry


COL, CHC will meet in the postseason for the first time tonight, after both losing Game 163’s for a chance at a division title. We will be supporting COL at + value tonight as we have identified slight advantages for the Rockies in what should be an extremely close game:

These 2 teams split their season series 3-3, with each team scoring exactly 33 runs (5.5/game). The road team won 4 of 6 games (66.6%) in the season series. COL enters this game as our top-ranked TOFI (Total Offensive Index) +15 ranks ahead of CHC at 16. COL has been a top-10 offensive metric team for the past respective 30,14,7 day spans at 8,6 and now number 1. CHC has somewhat sputtered down the stretch as a complacent team sitting 21st, 16th, 16th on the TOFI rankings in the same spans. Postseason means a brand new day so SEPT stats can’t be analyzed too intricately, however we will support the team who has hit 21 HR’s in the past 7 days (6 more than the second-ranked team and 17 more than CHC in this span), has a top-ranked .651 SLG% (.80 points higher than second-ranked team and .287 points higher than CHC in this span), and is currently batting a team .300 average.

Kyle Freeland has been incredible for COL this season. They have won 69.69% of his starts this season and 11 of his last 13 starts (84.6%). Freeland’s 2.85 ERA this season in a large 202.1 IP sample size is the lowest ever in a single season by a qualified Rockies pitcher. He hasn’t lost since AUG 1. He is 5-0 in SEPT and is 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 starts since the ASB. Lester is also putting together another incredible season with a 3.32 ERA and 6-1 record in his last 8 starts. He has vast postseason experience and we see this matchup as a wash. Expect this game to be decided by the bullpen in the later innings.

Arenado, Story became the first pair of teammates to finish 1st and 2nd in HR’s in the NL since Willie Mays and Willie McCovey did so way back in 1965. Albeit too late, Arenado, Story went yard consecutively in the 9th vs. LAD Monday night and we like them as deep threats tonight. Excluding Monday’s loss, COL has been on fire down the stretch run winning 9 of 10 (90%) since SEPT 19, while CHC is 6-4 (60%) in the their last 10. Postseason is all about momentum and COL are currently clicking on all cylinders.

Lack of Line Movement: Up to 75-80% of the public is overwhelmingly supporting CHC, however we have seen limited line movement. Oddsmakers aren’t too concerned about stripping value from CHC, meaning they think highly of COL to upset in this spot and allow them to rake in a large pool of public funds.