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NHL PICKS MARCH 19TH - MONTREAL VS PHILADELPHIA MONEYLINE ANALYSIS

March 19, 2019

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MONTREAL CANADIENS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+105)

This is a massive game for Montreal and Philadelphia’s dwindling playoff hopes as they are the two teams that sit outside the two Eastern Conference wild card spots. With a win, Montreal (3 points back) would inch closer to Columbus and keep their season alive, while it is looking like Philadelphia (6 points back) will be hard-pressed to make it regardless. We are going to support Montreal with + underdog value in this matchup. Over their last 10 games, Philadelphia has better goals for metrics, but have poor underlying scoring chance metrics and are headed for a regression. Montreal has some of the best current possession metrics in the NHL, out-possessing teams by +12.65% and +10.62% better than Philadelphia in this span. They are controlling the pace of games, but are being plagued by an unsustainably low 6% shooting percentage. A quick look at both the Flyers and Canadiens heatmaps shows how much more scoring chances Montreal has been generating than Philadelphia. Carey Price is in fine form and has given up 2 goals or less in 4 of this last 5 games and has a .938 Save % over his last 3 starts. Carter Hart continues a highly impressive rookie season. He had an impressive 41 save outing vs. PIT on Sunday, but has struggled to find consistency with an .831 Save % over his last 5 starts. Philadelphia has been a losing bet at home this season, losing bettors -3.74 units, while Montreal has been slightly profitable on the road winning bettors +0.56 units.

LAST 10 GAMES PLAYED DATA:

Goals For %

PHI 54.93%

MTL 46.30%

Scoring Chances For %

PHI 46.83%

MTL 51.78%

High-Danger Scoring Chances For %

PHI 51.69%

MTL 50.41%

Corsi For %

PHI 45.69%

MTL 56.31%

Season Save %

Price .915

Hart .918