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Nats Win! Play Of The Month Cashes In Large: Full Page Analysis Sent To Members

May 11, 2018

The Nationals Cashed in our play of the month on Thursday night. Check out our full page analysis which was spot on, sent to members hours before game time.

The Nationals have won 9 of their last 11 games and their seven wins in May ranks 2nd in MLB. They are on a 19 game streak of holding their opponents to five or fewer runs. Since 2012, Washington has gone 28-14 (.667) in games against Arizona, and 10-1-2 in those series. DBacks .333 winning percentage against the Nats is their lowest against any NL opponent in this span. In Tanner Roark’s first 5 career appearances vs. DBacks he had a stunning 0.00 ERA and struck out 11.96 batters per 9 innings. Since then he has a respectable 3.02 ERA vs. Arizona. He struck out 11 batters in 7 IP in his last outing at Chase Field. Expect Roark to throw a gem and keep the Nats less than 5 runs given up streak alive.

Matt Adams is red hot, leading MLB in May with 14 RBI’s and 1.638 OPS. He is tied for 1st in MLB with 7 HR’s and 11 runs scored. With Harper ahead as baseball’s best new lead off hitter (he walked 4 times in April series vs. Arizona), look for Washington’s top of the order to create havoc tonight.

On the contrary, Arizona’s most important hitter, Paul Goldschmidt, is off to the worst start of his career and is striking out 30% of his at-bats.

Recent performance is critically important in daily MLB betting. Over the last 7 days, the Nationals rank 10 spots higher than the DBacks on our total offensive ranking index. This takes into account heavily weighted statistics and their impact on game outcomes such as team batting average, OPS, RISP, K rate, BB rate, and total team WAR (wins above replacement). The Diamondbacks are currently mired in their worst offensive cold streak of the season, hitting a measly team .193 average (second worst in MLB to only the Cardinals).

We also feel comfortable in no Washington bullpen blow-ups tonight. Sean Doolittle is currently the best reliever in baseball. He has the lowest hard hit rate in MLB (14.8% compared to league average of 33%). He has the lowest expected opponent on-base percentage (.211 compared to league average of .323). He has been elite in preventing walks, recording strikeouts, and forcing easy soft-contact outs. We expect Nats to have the lead in the closing innings, and we fully expect Doolittle and the pen to close it out.

This -140 opening Arizona betting line is strictly driven by Greinke brand name recognition pitching at home. Roark has had overall better performances through 4 more innings of work (3.65 ERA compared to Greinke’s 4.10 ERA). Underlying team data also suggests Washington is the much more efficient team right now and should easily outscore a currently ice-cold batting Arizona team. Public betting data at one popular sportsbook we have access to also suggests 90% of the cash coming in on this game is taking the bait and betting on the home favorite.

This accumulative data warrants a larger play tonight. We will be cashing in large on the Nationals (10 units @ +120).

***10 unit play cashed in large, with a 12 unit return. Members who bet $100/unit profited $1200 on this play alone. Stop guessing with your sports betting. Join us today, cash in tonight.