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NBA PICKS APRIL 20 - DENVER NUGGETS VS SAN ANTONIO SPURS PICK & ANALYSIS

April 20, 2019

NBA EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

DENVER NUGGETS+3.5: 1 UNIT (-110)

DENVER MONEYLINE: 0.5 UNIT (+150)

This is the closest first round series by far. The point differential through 3 games is just 2 points (slight edge Spurs), making the +3.5 spread quite attractive. We are also going to sprinkle a half unit on the moneyline value to recouperate the inevitable -VIG that comes with spread betting. The Spurs stole game 2 in Denver and we are supporting the Nuggets to return the favor in game 4. We have identified an interesting trend in Spurs coach Greg Popovich’s post-season career and the Spurs inability to cover in game 4’s. Pop’s career post-season ATS record:

Games 1-2: 41-31 ATS (56.9%)

Game 3: 22-14 ATS (61.1%)

Game 4: 9-25-1 ATS (26.5%)

Games 5-7: 29-18-1 ATS (61.7%)

Pop is one of the most successful and profitable post-season coaches of all-time, but for whatever reason his teams have a long history of falling asleep in game 4, covering the spread just 26.5% of the time. The series data is nearly identical and these games are literally toss-ups from here on out. Let’s be smart and take the points and the moneyline value and not give any -VIG to your sportsbooks.

SERIES DATA:

Points Scored/Game

DEN 106

SAS 108

Total Offensive Efficiency (Points Scored/100 Possessions)

DEN 114.1

SAS 116.3

Points Allowed/Game

DEN 108

SAS 106

Total Defensive Efficiency (Points Allowed/100 Possessions)

DEN 116.3

SAS 114.1

Pace (Possessions/48 Minutes)

DEN 92.9

SAS 92.9