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April 24, 2019



We are electing to stay away from popular home team bets with high spreads and are looking to cash in on another under in this Rockets-Jazz series. These two teams are absolute under factories when they play each other. The under has in 3 of 4 games this series (75%), with an average combined game score of 207.7 points. The Jazz and Rockets played 4 times in the regular season with the under also hitting in 3 of these games (75%), with an average combined game score of 205 points. Please refer to our winning analysis on the under from Game 5:

“The Rockets are predominantly discussed in public narratives as a high-flying offensive team because of James Harden and company’s polarizing style of play. While exciting to watch, in reality they were ranked just 11th this season in points per game (113.9) and are extremely underrated on the defensive side of the ball. The Rockets were a top-10 defensive unit this season allowing just 109.1 points per game. They are also ranked 25th in pace and are clock-killers at both ends of the court, averaging just 97.8 possessions per game. They prefer a slow tempo, half-court style approach to the game. They rely on their offensive efficiency to win games, and force opponents to set up their offense and match their shooting percentages. Limited easy points and fast breaks. As a result, the Rockets were the 7th best under team this year, with the total falling below the number in 54.4% of their games. This cover rate has risen significantly down the stretch and into playoffs as the under has hit in 16 of their last 23 games (69.5%). The total has gone under in 8 of their last 11 games on the road (72.7%).

The Jazz were a mediocre offensive team all season averaging a 17th ranked 111.7 points per game and a 19th ranked 112.6 points per game at home. They have relied on their top-5 defensive unit all season to make the playoffs. They ranked 4th in points allowed per game (106.4) and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz offense has been abysmal in all 3 games and are averaging 96.3 points per game. Utah has topped 100 points just once with a measly 101. They are shooting just 40.1% from the field and have a brutal 25.5% clip from beyond the arc. The Jazz are holding James Harden to ‘just’ 27 points per game (-9 points below his season average) and held him to just 3-20 from the field in Game 3 in Utah.

This game resulted in 198-point game score in solid shutdown defensive effort by Utah and the under has now hit in 6 of the last 8 games between these teams (75%). Utah is now averaging -12.7 points less than their season average through 4 games in this series, and Houston is averaging -5.1 points less than their season average. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We are taking the under again.