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NBA PICKS APRIL 29 - DENVER NUGGETS VS PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS PICK & ANALYSIS

April 29, 2019

NBA EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

DENVER NUGGETS -4: 1 UNIT (-110)

 

Denver and Portland are the two best home ATS (Against the Spread) teams in the NBA. Denver has covered the spread in 60% of their home games this season, while Portland has covered the spread in 60.5% of their games. It will be smart to support the home teams in this series and we are going to kick off game 1 by supporting the Nuggets at home in Denver. The Trail Blazers' point differential goes from +8.4 at home in Portland to an even 0 when on the road. They average 118.2 points per game at home, and -7.1 less on the road (111.1). Denver won 3 of the 4 games they played with Portland in the regular season with the only loss not surprisingly coming on the road in Portland. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray also didn't play in the lone loss or else they would have had a great shot at sweeping the season series. Denver is 4-1 ATS (80%) in their last 5 games versus the Blazers and 6-1 in their last 7 games overall versus the Blazers (85.7%). Portland is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games overall (33.3%) and are 0-5 in their last 5 games in Denver (0%). 

 

Portland is going be in TOUGH around the rim and in the paint this series. The Blazers lost Jusuf Nurkic late in the year and Enes Kanter is dealing with a shoulder injury so sophomore center Zach Collins is going to be tasked with dealing with Nikola Jokic who had a phenomenal 1st round recording double-doubles in 6 of the 7 games versus San Antonio, including triple-doubles in game 7 and in game 1. Expect a dominant performance from Jokic. Damian Lillard went off versus OKC and he is obviously going to be Denver's biggest problem. Denver did a good job slowing down the scoring of Portland's backcourt of McCollum and Lillard during the regular season as the two combined for 41.25 points per game, which is -5.55 points per game fewer than their season average.