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April 30, 2019



This line seems appallingly high at first glance considering the outcome of Game 1 (22-point Celtics victory) and the public has jumped on a seemingly easy and generous amount of Boston + points. Why have the oddsmakers made a team who lost by 22-points at home in game 1 -7.5 favorites just 2 nights later? They are expecting a massive clapback from Milwaukee who haven’t lost 2 games in a row at home since March 2nd, 2018. That is over a calendar year and 393 days to be exact. The Bucks were the 4thmost profitable team to support at home this season, covering the spread in 59.5% of their games with an average MOV (Margin of Victory) of +12 points. Boston barely had a winning record on the road this season going 21-20 straight up and 18-21-2 (46.1%) ATS.

The Milwaukee Bucks simply put up a dud in game 1 and had extremely uncharacteristic play. They shot just 34.8% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. This is way below their season averages as they owned a 48.4% field goal percentage at home this year and a 36% mark from 3-point range. The Bucks are going to have to play better perimeter defense this game, and it could lead to a large double-digit victory. Boston leads the NBA playoffs in 3-point % (40.3%), but they are 2nd-last in 3-point attempts. If they go through a period of bricks in this game, they don’t shoot the volume needed to get back on track and could fall behind quickly with a cold performance from beyond the arc.

Giannis was largely ineffective in game 1 shooting just 7 of 21 from the field and he still finished with 22 points. He can only be contained for so long and we expect a massive clapback performance from the Greek Freak. During last year’s playoff series between the Bucks and Celtics, Milwaukee won every home game, with 2 of those 3 wins coming by double-digits. Game 1 this year was a fluke and Milwaukee is one of the most dangerous teams at home going. While the public has a short memory and is jumping all over Boston +, we are going to use larger sample sizes of data and support a deadly Bucks squad who haven’t lost 2 games in a row in Milwaukee in 393 days and finished the season with a double-digit point differential when playing at home.