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NBA PICKS MAY 1 - PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS VS DENVER NUGGETS PICK & ANALYSIS

May 1, 2019

NBA EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS 1ST QUARTER MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+125)

 

We typically like to harness full data sets for full-game spreads, but we have identified an interesting trend we would like to capitalize on with + value. The Nuggets have been a brutal first-quarter bet lately and are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games (16.6%). In the postseason, they're averaging just 23.8 points per 1st quarter while the Blazers are averaging +5.2 points more with 29. The Blazers and Nuggets were tied after the 1st quarter in Game 1 and Denver pulled away in the following 3 quarters. Great value here considering the Nuggets have been a 2nd half team in the post-season. Lillard and McCollum had a bad shooting night in Game 1 according to their standards, combining for 6 for 19 from beyond the arc (31.5%). Portland leads all NBA teams with 40.1% average from 3-point range in these playoffs. If Lillard and McCollum come out in Game 2 shooting the lights out we could cruise to an easy 1Q bet at + value.