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April 6, 2019



Everything about the Texas Tech dictates to us that they are the best team remaining in this tournament. Their data is incredible. Their play has backed it up. The Raiders have been highly profitable for us this tournament and we are going to ride them to the end. Please refer to our previous analyses on Texas Tech from our Michigan, and Gonzaga game writeups:

“The Raiders arguably have the strongest, most mobile defense in the nation. Tariq Owens is one the best rim defenders in the country with Tacko Fall, but is also mobile enough to stray out and guard the perimeter. Jarret Culver is arguably the best wing defender in the nation. Led by these two, the Raiders deploy a highly-effective defensive scheme which obsesses on keeping the ball out of the middle and forcing baseline drives. The Wolverines are also an average transition team and will be forced to shoot the ball highly efficiently from far out in order to even come close to matching their season point efficiencies. Michigan’s small-ball lineup also leaves them extremely vulnerable on the glass and they have the 284th ranked offensive rebounding rate. The Raiders are coming off a game in which they held the best pure scoring team in the nation, Buffalo, to just 58 points after they came off a 91-point performance in the round of 64. Expect Michigan to be struggling for points in this matchup. The previously mentioned Jarret Culver is likely going to be an NBA lottery pick and also produces a threat offensively that the Wolverines simply don’t have. He leads the Texas Tech offense which ranks in the top-50 in overall effective FG%, and the Raiders have a +3 points/game advantage over the Wolverines. Texas Tech is the more well-rounded team and +110 provides generous value we are looking forward to capitalizing on.

Everyone is sleeping on Texas Tech. Their lockdown, elite defense and diverse offense makes them an absolute real contender in this tournament. They honestly might be the best overall unit still in it. Enough has been said about Texas Tech, and their absolute dominance over Michigan supports this. Expect Texas Tech to do their thing and neutralize Gonzaga’s deadly offense, while proving to be a threat at the other end of the court.”

We are thrilled to be able to continue capitalizing on tremendous Texas Tech underdog value, as the public has yet to jump on the Raiders bandwagon train. The hype is with the Spartans here after knocking out the tournament favorite in Duke. However, this was not as impressive of a feat as it is being regarded as. Duke was the most overhyped team in tournament history. What is more impressive is Texas Tech’s route to the Final Four. They neutralized the most lethal pure offensive team in the nation, Buffalo, to -34 points under their season average in the round of 32. They put forth one of the best defensive efforts in tournament history holding #2 Michigan to 16 points at halftime in the Sweet 16, before neutralizing #1 seed Gonzaga, the second most lethal offensive team in the nation, to -18.6 points under their season average in the Elite 8.  

The Raiders have a +25 point differential since entering the Sweet 16, versus #1 and #2 seeds, a simply phenomenal feat. Texas Tech and Michigan State have comparable offenses and both shoot a respective 48.4 and 47.1% from the floor. It is defense and turnovers which gives the Raiders a massive advantage in this game. Texas Tech allows -6.1 points/game fewer than Michigan State and have allowed -16 points fewer in this tournament versus a much more difficult QOC (Quality of Competition). The Raiders defense thrives on mistakes and ranks 15thin creating chaos with 15.7 forces turnovers/game. They made Gonzaga’s elite backcourt cough up the ball 15 times and squeezed 14 turnovers out of Michigan, which averaged only 9 turnovers/game on the season. The Spartans can be prone to sloppiness and turned the ball over an alarming 20 times in the Round of 32 versus Minnesota. In their last 5 games in the Final Four, Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans are 1-4 straight up and ATS (20%) and will be susceptible to another loss versus the Texas Tech Raiders, who are 13-1 straight up (92.8%), and 12-2 ATS (85.7%) since the beginning of February.