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NCAAB PICKS APRIL 8 - TEXAS TECH VS VIRGINIA PICK & ANALYSIS

April 7, 2019

NCAAB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

TEXAS TECH MONEYLINE: 2 UNITS (+105)

PENDING FUTURES BET (ALREADY PLACED): TEXAS TECH TOURNAMENT WINNER 1 UNIT (+450)

Texas Tech did it again in the Final Four, punching their ticket to the National Championship with another dominant performance versus a higher seed. We are riding Texas Tech to the end and are in an extremely favorable situation with a pending futures bet on the Raiders that pays +450, bringing incredible value.

Over the course of the tournament we have recorded a 21-11-1 record (65.6%), netting +11 units. Over the course of our entire 2018-2019 NCAAB season we have recorded a 266-219-10 record, netting +58 units. We are going to supplement our futures bet with 2 more units on the Raiders moneyline at +105. We will be concluding the tournament either up +17.6 units for the tournament, and +64.6 units on the season with a Raiders win, or +8 units for the tournament, and +55 units on the season if they unfortunately fall short (not going to happen!). Regardless, this has been an extremely successful year and we will be finishing the season with significant profits. Congratulations to everyone who followed along this year and thank you for choosing the Expert Betting Network for your sports investing needs. As we conclude the tournament, we turn our focuses to historically dominant MLB season and NHL, NBA playoff runs. Please inquire about discounted member pricing options!

 

Let’s dissect tonight’s National Championship:

 

It is safe to say Texas Tech possesses the best defense in that nation, and one of the best units in recent tournament history. They are simply dominant. They held the #1 and #2 offenses in Buffalo and Gonzaga to -34 and -18.6 points below their season averages. They completely shutdown Michigan in one of the best defensive performances in tournament history holding them to 16 points at halftime. The Raiders followed this up by holding Michigan State to -26.6 points below their season average. Texas Tech now has an insane +70-point differential through 5 tournament games (average +14 points/game winning margin). The Raiders simply smother teams in the paint and don’t allow the ball to get inside. Tariq Owens (expected to play) is arguably the best rim defender in the country, but is mobile enough to stray out and guard the perimeter. Upcoming NBA lottery pick Jarrett Culver is arguably the best wing defender in the nation. Led by these two, the Raiders deploy a highly-effective defensive scheme which obsesses on keeping the ball out of the middle and forcing baseline drives and forced shots. They have been absolutely impenetrable this tournament and Virginia has a massive task ahead of them. 

Because of this impenetrable interior defense, Virginia is going to have to live-and-die by the 3-ball in this game. However, their 3-point shooting has regressed heavily in this tournament and they are shooting just 30.1% over the 5 games. This is -9.2% below their season average of 39.3% and would make them just the 319th best 3-point shooting team in the country. Texas Tech will be ready for high volume 3-point attempts and they are dominant guarding the long ball as well. The Raiders rank 8th in the nation, allowing opponents to shoot just 29.3% from the beyond the arc on the season, and have been even more dominant in the tournament allowing opponents to hit just 31-of 117 attempts (26.5%) in their 5 games. Virginia relies on the 3-ball for 35.4% of their total offense and they will be forcing extra 3-point attempts tonight. Expect Texas to be ready for this and for the Cavaliers long-ball to dry up with forced shots throughout the course of the game.

Expect a massive game from upcoming NBA lottery pick Jarrett Culver. Culver is their most important player on both sides of the ball. The good news? The Raiders still managed to beat #2 seed Michigan State by 10 points despite Culver having one of his worst games of the year finishing the game with just 10 points on 3-of-12 shooting (25%). The Big 12 Player of the Year came into the tournament hot, however, averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in four NCAA Tournament games prior to Minneapolis and we expect him to return to form in the biggest game of his young career. Virginia only lost three times all season and in two of those, it was because Zion Williamson dominated from inside the arc, hitting on 15-of-22 (68.1%) two-point attempts. Culver is not Zion, but he is at his best when he’s driving to the basket and not settling for outside shots. His ability to get to the rim should be a key factor that Texas Tech will look to exploit against the Cavaliers. Culver is by far the Red Raiders’ best player and expect him to bounce back with a big performance on Monday night. If he heats up, Cavaliers are in BIG trouble.

Virginia is downright lucky to be playing for the national championship on Monday night. They just simply haven’t been impressive. They needed a buzzer beater before OT to beat Purdue. That last sequence on Saturday was just silly, first with Ty Jerome getting away with a double-dribble before getting fouled and then the Cavaliers getting bailed out by Auburn’s Samir Doughty fouling Kyle Guy on his 3-point attempt with less than a second remaining. While Texas Tech buries teams and puts them away, Virginia allowed Auburn to go on a 14-0 run to take a 4-point lead with 17 seconds left, setting the stage for another dramatic finish for them to advance. Their +36-point differential versus way less difficult QOC (Quality of Competition: average opponent was a 9 seed) pales in comparison to Texas Tech’s +70-point differential versus an average opponent seed of 5.

Texas Tech has been phenomenal since early February, going on a tear in which they are 14-1 straight up in their last 15 games (93.3%) and have covered the spread in all 5 of their tournament games (100%). Virginia is also 14-1 straight up (93.3%) in their last 15 games, but have covered the spread in just 2 out of their 5 tournament games (40%). There is a reason why this game is basically a pick 'em despite a 2-seed difference. Texas Tech is the better team and should come away with their first ever National Championship. Best of luck!