< View All Articles

NCAAB PICKS MARCH 21TH - AUBURN VS NEW MEXICO STATE PICK & ANALYSIS

March 21, 2019

NCAAB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

Happy March Madness! Everyone's favorite tournament has arrived. We have filled out our brackets, and made our selections for day one. Our Expert Betting Network team has spent countless hours over the last week crunching numbers, stats and trends and preparing it into easy to digest data visualization for you to consume. Hope you enjoy this year's 2019 March Madness content. Let's make some money!

 

See below: Against The Spread (ATS) performance for the better seed for the past 15 and 10 year sample sizes of tournaments. As you can see, when making ATS wagers in the Round of 64, it is basically a toss up, with the better seed covering the spread in 50.4% over the last 15 tournaments and only 47.4% in a more recent sample size from 2008-2018. When we get into the 2nd round and Sweet 16, the better seeds historically start to cover more spreads, before the seeds start to make a heavy resurgence in the Final 8 with the better seed only covering the spread 34-36% of the time. Our selections this tournament will coincide with this historical spread data, and we will use this year's team-driven advanced analytics to push our winning percentages into profitable ranges. 

 

 

NEW MEXICO STATE+6: 1 UNIT (-110)

New Mexico State deserved higher than a 12 seed. Their most recent comparable for a team that made the tournament is Saint Joseph's in 2016, an 8 seed who won their first game and took 1 seed Oregon to the wire before eventually losing 69-64. The best thing about New Mexico State is their depth, which makes them the most difficult team in this tournament to prepare for in terms of predictability. Not only do the Aggies enter the field as the deepest team in the tournament, they are the deepest in recent history. Just about half (49.8%) of all the Aggies’ player minutes this season have come from bench players, the highest since KenPom began keeping track in 2007. The most minutes per game for any player on the team is just 25.4 (AJ Harris), with a ridiculous 13 players getting at least 10 per game. Scoring is also extremely equally distributed. Good luck game planning for 13 players, all rested at any given time, where any one of them can spontaneously get hot. The Aggies have an above average offense, which enters the tournament as the 21st ranked unit in terms of overall efficiency, up from their 115th rank they had in January, meaning they are getting hot at the perfect time. Auburn shoots the lights out from 3-point range and made an SEC record 396 3-pointers this season, making a healthy 37.6%. However, they could find themselves relying too heavily on the long ball and New Mexico has a great perimeter defense and dominate the boards. A few cold streaks from beyond the arc and New Mexico's unpredictability could really set them up for a potential upset in this spot. Auburn is clearly the better team overall, but the -6 spread should prove to be discrepant in this one. 

 

**3-4 MORE ADDITIONAL PLAYS WILL BE SENT THIS AFTERNOON.