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NCAAB PICKS MARCH 21TH - SAINT MARY'S VS VILLANOVA PICK & ANALYSIS

March 21, 2019

NCAAB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

 

ST. MARY'S+4: 1 UNIT (-110)

We have Saint Mary's as the second-most undervalued, under-seeded team in the tournament next to Oregon. They are a threat and we expect this to be a massively close game, if not a straight up upset. We will be supporting Saint Mary's +3. Villanova have had a sub-par season by their standards and are a shell of the title winning team from last year after losing 4 starters to the NBA. Villanova is another heavily reliant 3-point shooting team that we will be fading today. In fact, they are one of the most 3-point reliant teams in the nation. That's nothing new for the Wildcats, however their 3-point frequency has increased massively this season (albeit with lesser talent). 

A whopping 53.5% of Wildcats shots have come from beyond the arc this season, and this could turn out to be trouble vs. Saint Mary's who have an incredible perimeter defense and have specifically emphasized limiting the 3-pointer this season, especially late in the clock when Villanova gets their best looks by making the extra pass. The Wildcats are one of the slowest teams in the nation with a 339th pace ranking and severely limit their own possessions and offensive opportunities. Saint Mary's allowed opponents to shoot the 9th lowest amount of 3-pointers this season and limited teams to 31.8%, a top-50 ranking nationally. The Wildcats will really need to capitalize on their opportunities, especially early in the game. Villanova enters this game failing to cover the spread in their last 2 games and in just 3 times in their past 8 (37.5%).