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NCAAB PICKS MARCH 21TH - TEXAS TECH VS MICHIGAN PICK & ANALYSIS

March 28, 2019

NCAAB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

 

TEXAS TECH MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+110)

Both teams thrive on elite defense. The Raiders and Wolverines have incredible season-long data (see charts above) and have dominated the tournament thus far with +34 (Michigan) and +35 (Texas Tech) point differentials. We have identified more weaknesses with the Wolverines and will be supporting the Raiders with + underdog value. Michigan has a small-ball lineup which has been inconsistent offensively this season, and have looked especially pedestrian versus strong mutually defensive teams like Texas Tech. They are below-average from beyond the arc and are ranked just 156th in the nation in 3-point %. The Raiders arguably have the strongest, most mobile defense in the nation. Tariq Owens is one the best rim defenders in the country with Tacko Fall, but is also mobile enough to stray out and guard the perimeter. Jarret Culver is arguably the best wing defender in the nation. Led by these two, the Raiders deploy a highly-effective defensive scheme which obsesses on keeping the ball out of the middle and forcing baseline drives. The Wolverines are also an average transition team and will be forced to shoot the ball highly efficiently from far out in order to even come close to matching their season point efficiencies. Michigan’s small-ball lineup also leaves them extremely vulnerable on the glass and they have the 284th ranked offensive rebounding rate. The Raiders are coming off a game in which they held the best pure scoring team in the nation, Buffalo, to just 58 points after they came off a 91-point performance in the round of 64. Expect Michigan to be struggling for points in this matchup. The previously mentioned Jarret Culver is likely going to be an NBA lottery pick and also produces a threat offensively that the Wolverines simply don’t have. He leads the Texas Tech offense which ranks in the top-50 in overall effective FG%, and the Raiders have a +3 points/game advantage over the Wolverines. Texas Tech is the more well-rounded team and +110 provides generous value we are looking forward to capitalizing on.