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NCAAB PICKS MARCH 22 - PURDUE VS VILLANOVA PICK & ANALYSIS

March 22, 2019

NCAAB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS -3.5: 1 UNIT (-110)

Purdue has a substantially better offense (121.2 points/100 possessions vs. 117 points/100 possessions), and defense (95 points allowed/100 possessions vs. 98.3 points allowed/100 possessions) than Villanova. This -3.5 spread is generous and Purdue has the potential to blow the doors off them today. The masses are still high on Villanova, and the Wildcats are receiving up to 60-65% of public betting support today. Villanova still has the clout from being the defending champions, but they are a far cry from the team they were last tournament (please refer below to our analysis on Villanova from the first round)

 

"Villanova have had a sub-par season by their standards and are a shell of the title winning team from last year after losing 4 starters to the NBA. Villanova is another heavily reliant 3-point shooting team that we will be fading today. In fact, they are one of the most 3-point reliant teams in the nation. That's nothing new for the Wildcats, however their 3-point frequency has increased massively this season (albeit with lesser talent). Villanova enters this game failing to cover the spread in their last 2 games and in just 3 times in their past 8 (37.5%)."

 

Villanova edged by St. Mary's in their first game in a push. They are simply not a reliable team ATS (against the spread) this season and they match up terribly against Purdue. Purdue's 121.2 offensive efficiency is ranked 5th in the nation and they shoot a high-volume of 3-point shots, similar to Villanova. Boilermaker's have two players in Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline who alone shoot on average 17 3-point attempts/game, one of the highest usage duos in the nation. Edwards can create his own offense, can drain high-pressure and contested shots, and is one of the better pure scorers in the tournament. Purdue possesses the 5th best efficient offense, have phenomenal ball security (ranked 26th in nation in turnover %), and dominate the glass (ranked 17th in offensive rebounding %). When Edwards and Cline miss, you can bet Trevion Williams, Matt Haarms and Nojel Eastern (some of the best offensive rebounders in the country) will be their to clean up shop. Purdue can shoot the 3-ball like Villanova, but are faster paced, more efficient and have a better defense.