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NCAAB PICKS MARCH 24 - UCF VS DUKE PICK & ANALYSIS

March 24, 2019

NCAAB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

UCF KNIGHTS +13.5: 1 UNIT (-110)

Fading Duke may seem like a scary idea. While they are a legit contender equipped with high-flying all-stars, they remain the most overvalued team in this tournament with overwhelming amounts of public support behind them. This will affect their spreads all tournament long, giving them a few points too many every game. UCF actually matches up very well with Duke and +13.5 points is something that needs to be capitalized on. Duke is surprisingly the worst 3-point shooting team in the whole tournament, and they rely on their imposing all-stars to drive the rim and punish opponents in the paint. This is why UCF matches up so well. Have you watched 7’6” Tacko Fall play yet? He is a sight to see and is one of the best interior defenders in the nation. The NCAA doesn’t have a defensive 3-second rule allowing Tacko to establish legal residence in the paint. He dominated VCU in their first game with a ridiculous 13 points, 18 rebounds, 5 blocks stat line. His presence alone forces opposing offenses to switch up their game plan and force long contested 2 and 3-point shots in order to avoid making contact with him in the paint. UCF is going to force Duke to shoot and that is not their game plan making +13.5 points a comfortable margin to support. UCF has been an ATS (Against The Spread) machine and has covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games (81.8%). Since Zion returned to Duke’s lineup they are just 1-3 ATS (25%), with an average winning margin of 11.5 points, -2.5 points short of the 14 needed for Duke to cover this number.