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NCAAB PICKS MARCH 31 - MICHIGAN STATE VS DUKE PICK & ANALYSIS

March 31, 2019

NCAAB EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

 

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS+2: 1 UNIT (-110)

We have been watching Duke intently this tournament. They have elite talent but are the most overhyped team in the history of March Madness. Michigan State should be the favorite here. They are the better team. Duke has weaknesses. We mentioned in a previous analysis of Duke that they are the worst 3-point shooting team in the tournament. If you can stack the box, prevent paint points, and force Duke to shoot, they become exposed and are very beatable. We saw how hard they struggled versus 7’6” Tacko Fall and UCF who deployed that strategy tremendously and deserved a better fate. Duke has been a bettor’s nightmare covering the spread just 1 time in their last 8 games (12.5%). They have yet to cover a spread this tournament. The only game the Blue Devils have covered since the start of March was in the ACC final on March 2nd. Michigan State has won 13 out of their last 14 games and have covered the number in 10 of these games (71.4%). They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games (80%) and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral court (80%).