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NCAAB SYSTEM PLAY OF THE YEAR WRITEUP

January 24, 2018

Our team of Experts cashed in LARGE on Tuesday night, nailing our NCAAB System Play of the Year on the under 171.5 total in the Kansas/Oklahama game:

Last year, we began to heat up significantly around this time, amassing 43.7 units from February 1st until the end of the March Madness tournament.

 

We look to get ahead in a significant way tonight. We have identified significant bet signals for Tuesday night action between Kansas and Oklahoma. We will be cashing in on the under (171) tonight.

 

The success of this play will be heavily predicated on Kansas’ ability to slow down Oklahoma’s high-flying, Trae Young led offense. Numerous underlying statistics and trends suggest Kansas will keep them at bay. Coach Bill Self has preached a ‘defense first’ approach all season, and that philosophy will be heavily expressed for tonight’s game.

 

Kansas has the Big-12’s best 3-Point Defense allowing the opposing team to shoot just 31.4% from beyond the arc. That is an 8.2% dropoff from Oklahoma’s season average of 39.6% and our simulations have this affecting the Sooners’ point total by 9-12 points tonight. Look for senior guard Devonte Graham to play a defensively focused game in shutting down Trae Young’s efficiency from the 3-point range. Look for this defensive mindset to also affect his Kansas team leading 18.3 PTS/GP output. Graham’s shot has also not been falling lately, shooting just 38.7% from the floor in Kansas’ past 5 contests.

 

Both teams are atop the conference in defensive rebounding (Oklahoma 1st, Kansas T-3rd), so we don’t expect many second chance opportunities that will run the score up from sloppy defensive paint play.

 

Trae Young’s dominance has made Oklahoma an extremely one-dimensional team, which will allow a defensive juggernaut like Kansas to gameplan effectively for. Despite their reputation as a lethal offensive powerhouse (Oklahoma started the season off with 13 overs, 5 unders), they are on a recent streak of under play (total has gone under in 4 of their past 5 games). While Trae Young is still getting his points, their team totals are on a downward trend:

·      Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 vs. Big 12 Opponents.

·      Under is 5-2 in Sooners last 7 home game vs. a team with a winning record.

·      The total has gone under in Kansas’ last 18 of 23 games on the road.

 

The public perception of Trae Young and this high-powered Oklahoma offence has inflated this total, and is not taking into account Kansas’ elite defense. Our simulations have this total coming in around the 159-163 range; well below the listed 171 total. As long as this game doesn’t unluckily enter overtime, we will be cashing in large tonight.

 

THE PLAY: KANSAS/OKLAHOMA U171 (20 UNITS)

 

Congrats to all EXPERTPICKSINC.COM Members who cashed in LARGE on Tuesday night. $100/unit bettors profited $1820 of this play alone!