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NCAAF: CLEMSON WINNING ANALYSIS & END OF SEASON RECAP

January 8, 2019

Expert Picks Inc's 2018-2019 premium College Football investing program came to an end with clutch +5.5, and +200 moneyline winners on Clemson in their National Championship dismantling of Alabama. Check out our in-depth analysis sent to members before g

CLEMSON+5.5
 

For the first time in history the College Football National Championship will be played by two undefeated teams as the top-ranked 14-0 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the 14-0 number 2 Clemson Tigers. Our predictive model actually has Clemson ranked as the top team in the nation and we are thrilled to get +5.5 points of value in this matchup as we will be supporting the Tigers tonight. Alabama has failed to cover the number in their last 3 National title games.
 

Clemson and Alabama are strikingly similar. Our model has the Tigers defense as the number 1 ranked unit in the nation, with the 5th best offense. The Tide come into this matchup with the 2nd ranked offense and a 3rd ranked defense. Both teams have played the same level of competition with Alabama having faced an average 51st ranked team, and Clemson with a 52nd ranked average quality of competition. Star QB's Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence have both never lost a game as a starter. Alabama has won their games by an average of 31 points, while Clemson has won by an average of 29 points. Something is going to have to give here and we are poised to have a classic thriller on our hands.
 

Trevor Lawrence is a worthy adversary to Tua. He is 6'5", athletic as hell and smart with the football. He has been spectacular this season throwing for 3000 yards and 27 TD's throwing for just 4 INT's and only 11 sacks. He clicks especially well with 6'4" wideout Tee Higgins who dominates in 1-on-1 matchups and has big play potential. Higgins pulled in 11 TD's this season and is a deep threat. Look for this connection to be crucial to Clemson's success.
 

Clemson relies substantially on their defensive front 7 who are absolutely dominant in rushing attacks and clustering opposing QB's. They will have to be at their best in stopping Alabama's diverse offense, with numerous weapons and go-to options. Clemson's defense dominated Notre Dame and made QB Ian Book irrelevant. He was sacked 6 times, completed just 50% of his passes (17-34) with 0 TD's and an INT. Containing Tua is an absolute necessity and Clemson's number 1 concern heading into this matchup.
 

In the last 3 meeting between these teams, Alabama ran 71, 66 and 66 plays while Clemson ran 85, 99, 70 plays. The 99 play game was the one in which DeShaun Watson led Clemson to a 35-31 victory. If Clemson can get an advantage in ball possession and push the tempo into the mid-80 play range, they have a real shot to win this game outright. Expect big plays and numerous momentum and lead changes in this game.
 

We like Travis Etienne to have a big game. He has 11 different rushes of 30+ yards this season, second in the country to only Memphis' Darrell Henderson. Alabama has allowed 9 such rushes which ranks them 74th in the nation. Giving up Explosive run plays is Alabama's only glaring weakness and Etienne is the fastest RB Alabama will have faced all season. He has rushed for 100+ yards 8 times this season and he averages a stunning 8.3 yards/carry. He managed rushes of 75 and 62 yards in the ACC Championship game and the playoff semi-finals. Clemson has the 3rd best rushing defense nationally in the last decade and allow just 2.4 yards/carry. They are the only team in history to allow less than 1 rushing yard before contact. Their line is absolutely stacked with future NFL players and the run game advantage definitely goes to Clemson. The Tide's Damien Harris managed just 48 rushing yards on 13 attempts vs. a 100th ranked Oklahama defense. His longest career postseason rush in 6 games is 13 yards.

Clemson is 6-1 ATS on the road or at natural sites this season. They are 3-2 vs teams like Alabama who have won more than 70% of their games this season and have covered their last 2 games with ease. This is the third time in four years these teams are facing off in the National Championship, with the spread being nearly identical each year. Clemson has covered in the last two meetings, winning outright in 2017. They are 18-10 ATS as an underdog, including 7-1 in the postseason since Dabo Swinney took over the program. Swinney is the only coach to have ever beaten Nick Saban in a National Championship game. Up to 65% of the general public are supporting Alabama and we are looking forward to being on the sharp side of this game tonight.

 

NCAAF SYSTEM FULL SEASON RESULTS

$100 BETTORS = $3035 PROFIT

$50 BETTORS = $1,517 PROFIT

 

Expert Picks Inc. believes strongly in 100% transparency. Track every selection we made this season in the period of SEPT 1, 2018-JANUARY 7, 2019. We utilize a proven successful low-risk, high-reward approach to sports investing; using algorithms fueled by advanced analytics to seek out + value. $100 bettors were able to profit $3035 following our NCAAF analysis this fall. Imagine how much your income can be supplemented by following all of our premium services? Winter sports are already thriving. Email us at expertpicksinc@live.com for access details. 

Play League Date Event Pick Type Spread / Total Odds Risk Units Net Units Result
CLEM +5.5 NCAAF 01/07/2019

CLEM 44BAMA 16

Away Spread +5.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
CLEM +194 NCAAF 01/07/2019

CLEM 44BAMA 16

Away ML N/A +194 1.00 +1.94 Edit
UGA -11.5 NCAAF 01/01/2019

TEX 28UGA 21

Home Spread -11.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WASH +6.5 NCAAF 01/01/2019

WASH 23OSU 28

Away Spread +6.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
UK +5.5 NCAAF 01/01/2019

UK 27PSU 24

Away Spread +5.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
LSU -7.5 NCAAF 01/01/2019

LSU 40UCF 32

Away Spread -7.5 -101 2.00 +1.98 Edit
UTAH -7 NCAAF 12/31/2018

NW 31UTAH 20

Home Spread -7 +100 2.00 -2.00 Edit
ORE -1.5 NCAAF 12/31/2018

MSU 6ORE 7

Home Spread -1.5 -106 2.00 -2.00 Edit
VT +6.5 NCAAF 12/31/2018

CIN 35VT 31

Home Spread +6.5 -101 2.00 +1.98 Edit
VT +210 NCAAF 12/31/2018

CIN 35VT 31

Home ML N/A +210 1.00 -1.00 Edit
BAMA -14 NCAAF 12/29/2018

OKLA 34BAMA 45

Home Spread -14 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
ND +12 NCAAF 12/29/2018

ND 3CLEM 30

Away Spread +12 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
SC -4 NCAAF 12/29/2018

SC 0UVA 28

Away Spread -4 -110 2.00 -2.00 Edit
FLA +6 NCAAF 12/29/2018

FLA 41MICH 15

Away Spread +6 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
WVU +3 NCAAF 12/28/2018

WVU 18SYR 34

Away Spread +3 +100 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WVU +145 NCAAF 12/28/2018

WVU 18SYR 34

Away ML N/A +145 1.00 -1.00 Edit
AUB -3.5 NCAAF 12/28/2018

PUR 14AUB 63

Home Spread -3.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
VAN -4.5 NCAAF 12/27/2018

VAN 38BAY 45

Away Spread -4.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MIA -2.5 NCAAF 12/27/2018

MIA 3WISC 35

Away Spread -2.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
DUKE +3.5 NCAAF 12/27/2018

DUKE 56TEM 27

Away Spread +3.5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
TCU +100 NCAAF 12/26/2018

CAL 7TCU 10

Home ML N/A +100 1.00 +1.00 Edit
MINN +200 NCAAF 12/26/2018

MINN 34GT 10

Away ML N/A +200 1.00 +2.00 Edit
MINN +6 NCAAF 12/26/2018

MINN 34GT 10

Away Spread +6 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
LT +110 NCAAF 12/22/2018

HAW 14LT 31

Away ML N/A +110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
TROY +110 NCAAF 12/22/2018

BUFF 32TROY 42

Home ML N/A +110 1.00 +1.10 Edit
ARMY -6 NCAAF 12/22/2018

HOU 14ARMY 70

Home Spread -6 -115 1.00 +0.87 Edit
WF +115 NCAAF 12/22/2018

MEM 34WF 37

Home ML N/A +115 1.00 +1.15 Edit
USF +165 NCAAF 12/20/2018

MRSH 38USF 20

Home ML N/A +165 1.00 -1.00 Edit
USF +4 NCAAF 12/20/2018

MRSH 38USF 20

Home Spread +4 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
OHIO -2.5 NCAAF 12/19/2018

SDSU 0OHIO 27

Home Spread -2.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
FRES -6 NCAAF 12/15/2018

ASU 20FRES 31

Home Spread -6 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
UNT +7.5 NCAAF 12/15/2018

UNT 13USU 52

Away Spread +7.5 -120 1.00 -1.00 Edit
ULL +3.5 NCAAF 12/15/2018

ULL 24TUL 41

Away Spread +3.5 +100 3.00 -3.00 Edit
ULL +140 NCAAF 12/15/2018

ULL 24TUL 41

Away ML N/A +140 1.00 -1.00 Edit
FRES +110 NCAAF 12/01/2018

FRES 19BSU 16

Away ML N/A +110 2.00 +2.20 Edit
STAN -3 NCAAF 12/01/2018

STAN 23CAL 13

Away Spread -3 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
VT -3.5 NCAAF 12/01/2018

MRSH 20VT 41

Home Spread -3.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
OKLA -8 NCAAF 12/01/2018

TEX 27OKLA 39

Home Spread -8 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
WASH -5.5 NCAAF 11/30/2018

UTAH 3WASH 10

Home Spread -5.5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
NIU +145 NCAAF 11/30/2018

NIU 30BUFF 29

Away ML N/A +145 1.00 +1.45 Edit
TCU +5.5 NCAAF 11/24/2018

OKST 24TCU 31

Home Spread +5.5 -109 1.00 +0.92 Edit
TA&M -3 NCAAF 11/24/2018

LSU 72TA&M 74

Home Spread -3 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MIA -5 NCAAF 11/24/2018

PITT 3MIA 24

Home Spread -5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
UCLA +7.5 NCAAF 11/24/2018

STAN 49UCLA 42

Home Spread +7.5 +100 2.00 +2.00 Edit
WF +11 NCAAF 11/24/2018

WF 59DUKE 7

Away Spread +11 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
FIU +3 NCAAF 11/24/2018

MRSH 28FIU 25

Home Spread +3 -110 1.00 0.00 Edit
MICH -4.5 NCAAF 11/24/2018

MICH 39OSU 62

Away Spread -4.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
CIN +7 NCAAF 11/17/2018

CIN 13UCF 38

Away Spread +7 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MISS +121 NCAAF 11/17/2018

MISS 29VAN 36

Away ML N/A +121 1.00 -1.00 Edit
AFA +2.5 NCAAF 11/17/2018

AFA 27WYO 35

Away Spread +2.5 -105 1.00 -1.00 Edit
OKST +195 NCAAF 11/17/2018

WVU 41OKST 45

Home ML N/A +195 1.00 +1.95 Edit
TENN +6.5 NCAAF 11/17/2018

MIZZ 50TENN 17

Home Spread +6.5 -112 1.00 -1.00 Edit
NEB -1 NCAAF 11/17/2018

MSU 6NEB 9

Home Spread -1 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
BAY +105 NCAAF 11/17/2018

TCU 16BAY 9

Home ML N/A +105 1.00 -1.00 Edit
USF +14 NCAAF 11/17/2018

USF 17TEM 27

Away Spread +14 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
CAL +4 NCAAF 11/10/2018

CAL 15USC 14

Away Spread +4 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
Over 54 NCAAF 11/10/2018

CLEM 27BC 7

Over 54 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
TTU +110 NCAAF 11/10/2018

TEX 41TTU 34

Home ML N/A +110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
ORE +165 NCAAF 11/10/2018

ORE 25UTAH 32

Away ML N/A +165 1.00 -1.00 Edit
Over 59 NCAAF 11/10/2018

PUR 10MINN 41

Over 59 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MD +105 NCAAF 11/10/2018

MD 32IND 34

Away ML N/A +105 1.00 -1.00 Edit
CAL +9 NCAAF 11/03/2018

CAL 13WSU 19

Away Spread +9 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
UNLV +26.5 NCAAF 11/03/2018

FRES 48UNLV 3

Home Spread +26.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
TTU +14 NCAAF 11/03/2018

OKLA 51TTU 46

Home Spread +14 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
SMU +15 NCAAF 11/03/2018

HOU 31SMU 45

Home Spread +15 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
NMSU +10.5 NCAAF 11/03/2018

ALCST 42NMSU 52

Home Spread +10.5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
UK +9.5 NCAAF 11/03/2018

UGA 34UK 17

Home Spread +9.5 -105 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MD +135 NCAAF 11/03/2018

MSU 24MD 3

Home ML N/A +135 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WF +7 NCAAF 11/03/2018

SYR 41WF 24

Home Spread +7 -110 2.00 -2.00 Edit
WF +180 NCAAF 11/03/2018

SYR 41WF 24

Home ML N/A +180 1.00 -1.00 Edit
OKST +3.5 NCAAF 10/27/2018

TEX 35OKST 38

Home Spread +3.5 -115 1.00 +0.87 Edit
NCST -2 NCAAF 10/27/2018

NCST 41SYR 51

Away Spread -2 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
RICE +30 NCAAF 10/27/2018

RICE 17UNT 41

Away Spread +30 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
UK +245 NCAAF 10/27/2018

UK 15MIZZ 14

Away ML N/A +245 1.00 +2.45 Edit
UK +7.5 NCAAF 10/27/2018

UK 15MIZZ 14

Away Spread +7.5 -115 2.00 +1.74 Edit
FLA +7 NCAAF 10/27/2018

FLA 17UGA 36

Away Spread +7 -110 2.00 -2.00 Edit
FLA +215 NCAAF 10/27/2018

FLA 17UGA 36

Away ML N/A +215 1.00 -1.00 Edit
USF +9 NCAAF 10/27/2018

USF 36HOU 57

Away Spread +9 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
ARMY +105 NCAAF 10/27/2018

ARMY 37EMU 22

Away ML N/A +105 1.00 +1.05 Edit
WF +120 NCAAF 10/27/2018

WF 56LOU 35

Away ML N/A +120 1.00 +1.20 Edit
USC +7.5 NCAAF 10/20/2018

USC 28UTAH 41

Away Spread +7.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
UNT -105 NCAAF 10/20/2018

UNT 21UAB 29

Away ML N/A -105 2.00 -2.00 Edit
UTSA +16 NCAAF 10/20/2018

UTSA 17USM 27

Away Spread +16 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
MSST +7 NCAAF 10/20/2018

MSST 3LSU 19

Away Spread +7 -105 1.00 -1.00 Edit
NMSU +9.5 NCAAF 10/20/2018

GASO 48NMSU 31

Home Spread +9.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WF +8 NCAAF 10/20/2018

WF 17FSU 38

Away Spread +8 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WYO +15 NCAAF 10/20/2018

USU 24WYO 16

Home Spread +15 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
MD +10 NCAAF 10/20/2018

MD 0IOWA 23

Away Spread +10 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
CIN +148 NCAAF 10/20/2018

CIN 17TEM 24

Away ML N/A +148 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MSU +7.5 NCAAF 10/20/2018

MICH 21MSU 7

Home Spread +7.5 -115 1.00 -1.00 Edit
VT -6.5 NCAAF 10/13/2018

VT 22UNC 19

Away Spread -6.5 -115 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MEM +5.5 NCAAF 10/13/2018

UCF 31MEM 30

Home Spread +5.5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
ORE +155 NCAAF 10/13/2018

WASH 27ORE 30

Home ML N/A +155 1.00 +1.55 Edit
ILL +10 NCAAF 10/13/2018

PUR 46ILL 7

Home Spread +10 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
SC +115 NCAAF 10/13/2018

TA&M 26SC 23

Home ML N/A +115 1.00 -1.00 Edit
DUKE +105 NCAAF 10/13/2018

DUKE 28GT 14

Away ML N/A +105 1.00 +1.05 Edit
KSU +8 NCAAF 10/13/2018

OKST 12KSU 31

Home Spread +8 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
IOWA -3.5 NCAAF 10/13/2018

IOWA 42IND 16

Away Spread -3.5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
VT +7 NCAAF 10/06/2018

ND 45VT 23

Home Spread +7 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
UTEP +25.5 NCAAF 10/06/2018

UNT 27UTEP 24

Home Spread +25.5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
TA&M -5.5 NCAAF 10/06/2018

UK 14TA&M 20

Home Spread -5.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
ASU +115 NCAAF 10/06/2018

ASU 21COLO 28

Away ML N/A +115 1.00 -1.00 Edit
FLA +105 NCAAF 10/06/2018

LSU 19FLA 27

Home ML N/A +105 2.00 +2.10 Edit
BC +6.5 NCAAF 10/06/2018

BC 23NCST 28

Away Spread +6.5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
Over 43.5 NCAAF 10/06/2018

NW 29MSU 19

Over 43.5 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
TEX +7 NCAAF 10/06/2018

TEX 48OKLA 45

Away Spread +7 +100 2.00 +2.00 Edit
USC -3 NCAAF 09/29/2018

USC 24ARIZ 20

Away Spread -3 -105 1.00 +0.95 Edit
MISS +10.5 NCAAF 09/29/2018

MISS 16LSU 45

Away Spread +10.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
STAN +175 NCAAF 09/29/2018

STAN 17ND 38

Away ML N/A +175 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WKU +155 NCAAF 09/29/2018

MRSH 20WKU 17

Home ML N/A +155 1.00 -1.00 Edit
UNT -7 NCAAF 09/29/2018

LT 29UNT 27

Home Spread -7 +105 1.00 -1.00 Edit
PSU +145 NCAAF 09/29/2018

OSU 27PSU 26

Home ML N/A +145 1.00 -1.00 Edit
VT +180 NCAAF 09/29/2018

VT 31DUKE 14

Away ML N/A +180 1.00 +1.80 Edit
VT +6 NCAAF 09/29/2018

VT 31DUKE 14

Away Spread +6 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
NEV +148 NCAAF 09/29/2018

NEV 28AFA 25

Away ML N/A +148 1.00 +1.48 Edit
ORE +115 NCAAF 09/22/2018

STAN 38ORE 31

Home ML N/A +115 1.00 -1.00 Edit
TEX +125 NCAAF 09/22/2018

TCU 16TEX 31

Home ML N/A +125 3.00 +3.75 Edit
TEX +125 NCAAF 09/22/2018

TCU 16TEX 31

Home ML N/A +125 1.00 +1.25 Edit
CIN -7 NCAAF 09/22/2018

OHIO 30CIN 34

Home Spread -7 -115 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WF +6.5 NCAAF 09/22/2018

ND 56WF 27

Home Spread +6.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WF +200 NCAAF 09/22/2018

ND 56WF 27

Home ML N/A +200 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MINN +105 NCAAF 09/22/2018

MINN 13MD 42

Away ML N/A +105 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WSU +170 NCAAF 09/21/2018

WSU 36USC 39

Away ML N/A +170 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MIZZ -6 NCAAF 09/15/2018

MIZZ 40PUR 37

Away Spread -6 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
OHIO +5.5 NCAAF 09/15/2018

OHIO 31UVA 45

Away Spread +5.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
TTU +105 NCAAF 09/15/2018

HOU 49TTU 63

Home ML N/A +105 1.00 +1.05 Edit
UNT +190 NCAAF 09/15/2018

UNT 44ARK 17

Away ML N/A +190 1.00 +1.90 Edit
LSU +11 NCAAF 09/15/2018

LSU 22AUB 21

Away Spread +11 -110 1.00 +0.91 Edit
BSU +100 NCAAF 09/15/2018

BSU 21OKST 44

Away ML N/A +100 1.00 -1.00 Edit
SYR +180 NCAAF 09/15/2018

FSU 7SYR 30

Home ML N/A +180 1.00 +1.80 Edit
SYR +3.5 NCAAF 09/15/2018

FSU 7SYR 30

Home Spread +3.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
CAL +130 NCAAF 09/08/2018

CAL 21BYU 18

Away ML N/A +130 1.00 +1.30 Edit
USC +190 NCAAF 09/08/2018

USC 3STAN 17

Away ML N/A +190 1.00 -1.00 Edit
ISU +145 NCAAF 09/08/2018

ISU 3IOWA 13

Away ML N/A +145 1.00 -1.00 Edit
COLO +140 NCAAF 09/08/2018

COLO 33NEB 28

Away ML N/A +140 1.00 +1.40 Edit
ARIZ +148 NCAAF 09/08/2018

ARIZ 18HOU 45

Away ML N/A +148 1.00 -1.00 Edit
KSU +210 NCAAF 09/08/2018

MSST 31KSU 10

Home ML N/A +210 1.00 -1.00 Edit
VT +250 NCAAF 09/03/2018

VT 24FSU 3

Away ML N/A +250 2.00 +5.00 Edit
VT +7.5 NCAAF 09/03/2018

VT 24FSU 3

Away Spread +7.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
LSU +145 NCAAF 09/02/2018

MIA 17LSU 33

Home ML N/A +145 1.00 +1.45 Edit
SMU +170 NCAAF 09/01/2018

SMU 23UNT 46

Away ML N/A +170 1.00 -1.00 Edit
WASH +115 NCAAF 09/01/2018

WASH 16AUB 21

Away ML N/A +115 1.00 -1.00 Edit
CC +29.5 NCAAF 09/01/2018

CC 15SC 49

Away Spread +29.5 -110 1.00 -1.00 Edit
MD +13.5 NCAAF 09/01/2018

TEX 29MD 34

Home Spread +13.5 -110 2.00 +1.82 Edit
MD +425 NCAAF 09/01/2018

TEX 29MD 34

Home ML N/A +425 1.00 +4.25 Edit
MISS +115 NCAAF 09/01/2018

MISS 47TTU 27

Away ML N/A +115 1.00 +1.15