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NCAAF PICKS OCT 12 - SATURDAY'S FULL CARD & ANALYSIS

October 12, 2019

NCAAF EXPERT PICKS

*EBN Rank - Expert Betting Network's national team rank according to our model

 

*OFF - Nationally ranked offense according to our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) model

 

*DEF - Nationally ranked defense according to our TODI (Total Defensive Index) model. 

 

*QOC - Quality of Competition. Average ranged opponent according to our EBN Rank. 

 

KENT STATE -14.5: 1 UNIT (-110)

 

KENT EBN RANK - 79th 

KENT OFF RANK - 88th

KENT DEF RANK - 126th

KENT QOC RANK - 86th

 

AKRN EBN RANK - 502nd

AKRN OFF RANK - 271st

AKRN DEF RANK - 228th

AKRN QOC RANK - 217th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Kent State 40, Akron 13

 

Akron is by far the worst team in the FBS and are a sad excuse for a division 1 team that quite frankly deserves to be relegated. Their data places them in the bottom third of all 774 teams spanning all divisions in this nation. They are 0-5 straight up and ATS this season, losing by an average of 21.4 points per game versus abysmal 217th ranked average QOC (Quality of Competition). They have lost 10 straight games dating back to last season and are 1-7 (12.5%) ATS in their last 8 games at home. Akron has simply been horrible as a home underdog and are just 5-16 (23.8%) ATS in this situation since 2012. Akron has never covered the spread as a double-digit underdog at home. There is just nothing positive about this Akron team. They rank in the basement of the FBS in scoring offense and scoring defense. Junior QB Kato Nelson has been sacked 19 times this season and they are averaging just 51 rushing yards per game and 2 ground TD's on the season. 


Kent State has 3 losses in 5 games, but all three losses have come against high-QOC; teams that are currently ranked or ranked at some point in the season (Auburn, Wisconsin, Arizona State). They didn't fare well in these contests, but have easily taken care of lowly-QOC like Akron. For example, when facing another abysmal team like Bowling Green (EBN Rank - 263rd), Kent State dominated them 62-20 (+42 points), outgaining them 750 yards to 360 yards. Expect Akron to get throttled once again this week. 

 

 

DUKE -17: 1 UNIT (-115)

 

DUKE EBN RANK - 41st

DUKE OFF RANK - 37th

DUKE DEF RANK - 39th

DUKE QOC RANK - 70th

 

G-TECH EBN RANK - 222nd

G-TECH OFF RANK - 158th

G-TECH DEF RANK - 109th

G-TECH QOC RANK - 117th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Duke 40, Georgia Tech 12

 

Georgia Tech's offense has been abysmal ranking 158th on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) rankings, averaging just 15.2 points per game versus lowly average 117th ranked QOC (Quality of Competition). Now they have a redshirt freshman in James Graham taking over the reigns and making his first career start this Saturday versus a respectable Duke team with an above average which sits 39th on our TODI (Total Defensive Index) rankings. Duke's defense forced Pittsburgh into 4 turnovers last week. Georgia Tech's struggling offense has 11 turnovers which is tied for the most in the ACC, and they are now being led by a true freshman at QB. Don't expect the run game to bail them out either as Duke has one of the division's best run defense allowing just 126 yards per game on the ground. 

 

Duke QB Quentin Harris has struggled versus elite defenses this season, but has dominated lowly QOC. Luckily for Harris and the Blue Devils, Georgia Tech is lowly QOC and their defense sits an uninspiring 109th on our TODI rankings. Against the two best defenses (Alabama, Pittsburgh) on their schedule, Harris is 30-for-65 (46.1%) with 1 TD, 4 INT's. However, in Duke's other 3 games, Harris has completely dominated going 74-for-96 (77%) with 10 TD's, 0 INT's. Expect Harris to flip the switch and dominate another lowly defensive squad en route to what our system has simulated to be a 28-point victory.

 

Georgia Tech has been a money pit for bettors going 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games dating back to last season. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus Duke. 

 

OREGON STATE +14.5: 1 UNIT (-110)


ORG-ST EBN RANK - 99th

 

ORG-ST OFF RANK - 26th

ORG-ST DEF RANK - 69th

ORG-ST QOC RANK - 95th

 

UTAH EBN RANK - 45th

UTAH OFF RANK - 68th

UTAH DEF RANK - 13th

UTAH QOC RANK - 143rd

 

EBN Simulated Score

Utah 28, Oregon State 23

 

Oregon State has an underrated, spicy offense which should be able to eclipse the 20+ point mark and create enough production to cover this hefty +14.5 point spread. Utah's strength is a shutdown defense, but their offense pales in comparison to Oregon State and if the Beavers score a couple TD's as our model is predicting this spread should be a virtual lock as we don't envision Utah eclipsing the 30-point mark. Utah's elite 13th ranked defense on our TODI (Total Defensive Index) should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in the season as they have faced a very poor average 143rd ranked QOC (Quality of Competition). USC was the previous best offense Utah has faced and they allowed 30 points in a 30-23 loss, their only loss of the season so far. 

 

The Beavers offense was cooking last week versus UCLA. QB Jake Luton threw for a career-high 5 TD's to increase his season production total to 14 TD's and just 1 INT. Luton is in the zone right now. Oregon State has been incredible at extending drives and lead the Pac-12 in conversions - a crucial stat for any offense. WR Isaiah Hodgins has been a lethal target  who has already recorded 632 reception yards and 9 TD's. Supplementing the passing game is RB Artavis Pierce who has rushed for nearly 100 yards per game and has 5 rushing TD's. Look for this underrated offense to give a Utah defense which has thrived off low QOC fits and for them to keep them in the game en route to covering the spread. 

 

Oregon State has been a money maker for bettors this season going 4-1 ATS (80%). They have a good track record in the fall going 9-2 (81.8%) ATS in their last 11 games in October. They have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games (80%) versus Utah. Utah has been a money pit for bettors and are 2-6 ATS (25%) in their last 8 games dating back to last season. 

 

PENN STATE -3.5: 1 UNIT (-105)


PENN EBN RANK - 10th

 

PENN OFF RANK - 7th

PENN DEF RANK - 4th

PENN QOC RANK - 135th

 

IOWA EBN RANK - 26th

IOWA OFF RANK - 80th

IOWA DEF RANK - 5th

IOWA QOC RANK - 98th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Penn State 25, Iowa 10

 

Iowa is currently the 17th seed, but we have them lower on our EBN rankings, just outside the top-25 at 26th. Penn State continues to climb up our rankings and remain in an elite top-10 spot. This line should prove to be discrepant and our model has simulated a dominant 15-point victory for the Nittany Lions. 


This should be a low-scoring, methodical game featuring the 4th and 5th ranked defenses on our TODI (Total Defensive Index). However, we have a massive discrepancy in the offenses here giving Penn State a staggering advantage in this game and we feel Iowa's lack of offensive production should make this a double-digit spread in Penn's favor. The Lions can do it on both sides of the ball and also have a top-10 ranked offense averaging 47 points and 433.4 total yards per game. Iowa's only 2 games versus decent-QOC in Michigan (TODI Rank -20th) and Iowa State (TODI Rank - 30th), they laid offensive eggs averaging just 10.5 points in these games. Don't be shocked if Iowa fails to eclipse the 10-point mark in this matchup with by far the best team they have played this season. Iowa struggles versus strong defensive opponents and are 2-5 (28.5%) in their last 7 versus Big-Ten opponents. Penn State is allowing a measly 7.4 points per game this season, 2nd in the nation to only Wisconsin. 

 


Penn State is 4-1 ATS (80%) this season and have taken care of business versus Iowa also going 4-1 ATS (80%) in their last 5 games versus each other. 

 

 

TOLEDO -26.5: 1 UNIT (-110)

 

TOL EBN RANK - 52nd

TOL OFF RANK - 66th

TOL DEF RANK - 58th

TOL QOC RANK - 154th

 

BOWL EBN RANK - 263rd

BOWL OFF RANK - 211th

BOWL DEF RANK - 238th

BOWL QOC RANK - 151st

 

EBN Simulated Score

Toledo 46, Bowling Green 10

 

It is always favorable when two teams' QOC (Quality of Competition) ranks matchup similarly so you can compare their efficiencies versus similar levels of competition. Despite facing nearly identical levels of QOC, Toledo sits a reeling +211 ranks ahead of Bowling Green on our overall EBN rankings. The Rockets possess a top-100 offense and defense and while this seems like an ambitious spread for a non-ranked team, we find it to be discrepantly low and our system has simulated a 35+ point victory for Toledo. Bowling Green is in the same radar as Akron as one of the worst teams in the nation. 

 

Some staggering stats about the levels of Bowling Green's inefficiencies: They are allowing an average of 40.8 points per game and nearly 500 yards of total offense. They have been shutout twice and recorded 3 points in 3 of their 5 games. They have scored more than 1 TD in just 1 game. They are 2-12 (14.2%) ATS in their last 14 games at home. 

 

Toledo won't smack you in the face with talent, but is a well balanced team on both sides of the ball. Mitchell Guadagni has led an efficient offense this season throwing for 905 yards with 7 TD's, 2 INT's. His offense has averaged 470 total yards per game. Their defense is allowing a very respectable 20.8 points per game and Bowling Green will be in tough to eclipse the 10 point mark yet again. The Rockets have been money makers for bettors going 4-1 ATS (80%) this season and they have a good track record of taking care of business versus lowly teams and have gone 14-5 ATS (73.6%) in their last 19 games versus teams with a losing record.

 

HAWAII +13.5: 1 UNIT (-110)


HAW EBN RANK - 23rd

HAW OFF RANK - 33rd

HAW DEF RANK - 70th

HAW QOC RANK - 68th

 

BOISE EBN RANK - 16th

BOISE OFF RANK - 83rd

BOISE DEF RANK - 25th

BOISE QOC RANK - 150th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Boise State 32, Hawaii 28

 

Hawaii is coming off the biggest their largest margin of victory since joining the Mountain West, throttling Nevada in their stadium 54-3. A taller task awaits in 14th-seeded Boise, but the Warriors are on the rise and have broken into the top-25 of our overall EBN rankings. The general public has yet to catch onto Hawaii and we are looking to capitalize on what should be an extremely discrepant double-digit spread. Look for Hawaii to contend in this game and make a run to win this one outright. 

 

These teams are completely opposite styles as Hawaii thrives off an electric offense and reel teams into sloppy defensive, run n' gun offensive shootouts. Boise State's strength is their 25th ranked defense on our TODI (Total Defensive Index). Boise State's current 14th seed is should be taken with an extreme grain of salt as they have played abysmal 150th average ranked QOC (Quality of Competition). The best team they played was Florida State (EBN Rank - 40th) and they won by just 5 and allowed 30 points. Hawaii's run and gun attack is designed to get the ball into the hands of receivers quickly and they have 4 or 5 targets running routes at all times spreading the defense thin and creating continuous open-field situations. Expect the Warriors to test Boise's secondary more than they have all season.

 

Hawaii QB Cole McDonald is completing 68.9% of his completions for 1,629 passing yards and a staggering 17 TD's. Cedric Byrd and Jojo Ward lead the receiving corps with a combined 1,016 receiving yards and 15 TD's. This offense is averaging 37 points per game this season. Hawaii's confidence is at an all-time high and their offense is too dangerous to accept a double-digit spread. We expect them to score a handful of TD's and keep this one close.

 

MARYLAND -3.5: 1 UNIT (-115)


MARY EBN RANK - 73rd

MARY OFF RANK - 24th

MARY DEF RANK - 48th

MARY QOC RANK - 166th

 

PUR EBN RANK - 143rd

PUR OFF RANK - 91st

PUR DEF RANK - 76th

PUR QOC RANK - 64th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Maryland 35, Purdue 25

 

Purdue's program is on a rapid decline and they have fallen as low as 143rd on our overall EBN rankings and have become a must fade. They are 1-5 (16.6%) straight up over their last 6 games. ATS they are 3-6 (33.3%) in their last 9 games dating back to last season, and we expect these percentages to get worse. Maryland has been average this season, but our model is extremely low on Purdue and has simulated a 10-point Terrapins victory. 

 

Purdue's offense is abysmal. They are an atrocious averaging 1.9 yards per carry on 26 attempts per week and have been held to under 35 rushing yards in 3 of their 5 games this season. They are the worst rushing team in the nation. Maryland is an efficient rushing team averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Expect the disparity offensive lines and the ground game to provide the Terrapins with a massive advantage in this game. Purdue's offensive line hasn't helped them in the passing game either and expect Maryland to cause havoc in the backfield and force the Boilermakers into many 3rd-and-long situations they won't be able to convert on. Maryland is coming off their biggest win versus a Big-Ten opponent since 2017 and Purdue is 1-4 ATS (25%) in their last 5 games versus winning opponents. 

 

 In addition to poor play, Purdue's significant injury problems are contributing to them being a complete disaster at the moment. Top WR Rondale Moore is nursing a knee injury and QB Elijah Sindelar is not available for Week 6. Maryland surprisingly ranks 11th in amount of TD's scored this season with 27. Purdue won't be able to keep up in this one and Maryland should roll to a double-digit victory. 

 

SAN JOSE STATE +2.5: 1 UNIT (-110)

SAN JOSE STATE MONEYLINE: 0.5 UNIT (+120)


SJS EBN RANK - 116th

SJS OFF RANK - 111th

SJS DEF RANK - 111th

SJS QOC RANK - 167th

 

NEV EBN RANK - 58th

NEV OFF RANK - 133rd

NEV DEF RANK - 171st

NEV QOC RANK - 107th

 

EBN Simulated Score

San Jose State 35, Nevada 28

 

Nevada is coming off a brutally embarrassing 54-3 blowout loss to Hawaii in which they allowed 512 total yards of offense. San Jose State is coming off an impressive victory over New Mexico in which QB Josh Love through for a ridiculous 405-yard passing performance. He has been the 3rd best QB in this entire conference and possesses Nevada with another threat to their crumbling 171st ranked defense on our TODI (Total Defensive Index). Love has a great opportunity to have another highly efficient game after Nevada nearly allowed Hawaii's Cole McDonald to throw a perfect passing night. The Wolfpack's defense has allowed a conference high 17 passing TD's this season. 

 

Nevada sits a respectable 58th on our overall EBN rankings, but their offense and defensive metrics are rapidly declining and last week's blowout to Hawaii has set off a red alarm on this team. Albeit, Oregon is a ranked team, but the Wolfpack lost by 71 points to them in Week 2. This defense is a ticking time bomb and must be faded at all costs. San Jose State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus Mountain West Conference opponents and have been a money maker for bettors dating back to last season going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

 

BALL STATE +1: 1 UNIT (-110)

BALL STATE MONEYLINE: 0.5 UNIT (+100)


BALL EBN RANK - 193rd

BALL OFF RANK - 74th

BALL DEF RANK - 150th

BALL QOC RANK - 171st

 

E-MICH EBN RANK - 131st

E-MICH OFF RANK - 120th

E-MICH DEF RANK - 166th

E-MICH QOC RANK - 154th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Ball State 36, Eastern Michigan 32

 

Brutal game, but we must capitalize on the value that this snooze fest presents. Both teams are uninspiring, but the biggest strength in this matchup is Ball State's offense which is enough to lock them down moneyline at even value. Albeit versus low-QOC (Quality of Competition), but the Cardinals rank an impressive 34th in the nation with 282.4 passing yards per game. Our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) equates for QOC and they still sit in the top-100 at a respectable 74th in total offense. Eastern Michigan is the definition of low-QOC and our model has simulated Ball State's offense putting up nearly 40 points. 

 

Ball State's offense averages 32.4 points per game. QB Drew Plitt is completing 65% of his passes and has 11 passing TD's on the season. Caleb Huntley, Walter Fletcher, Justin Hall provide an efficient three-headed rushing attack in the backfield with a combined 700 rushing yards and 8 TD's. 

 

Eastern Michigan got slapped in a rivalry game versus an equally abysmal Central Michigan (EBN Rank - 151st) team last week in which they were pounded into the ground being outgained 587-285 and allowing 25 first downs. Not only does Eastern Michigan get dominated versus difficult QOC, they get convincingly beat by versus low QOC as well. They are 1-4 (20%) ATS in their last 5 games versus teams with a losing record. 

 

WYOMING +3.5: 1 UNIT (-110)

WYOMING MONEYLINE: 0.5 UNIT (+150)


WYO EBN RANK - 44th

WYO OFF RANK - 65th

WYO DEF RANK - 42nd

WYO QOC RANK - 134th

 

SDS EBN RANK - 57th

SDS OFF RANK - 186th

SDS DEF RANK - 10th

SDS QOC RANK - 182nd

 

EBN Simulated Score

Wyoming 14, San Diego State 13

 

The fascinating thing about this Wyoming offense is that there is no secret about their game plan week in and week out, but they remain extremely difficult to gameplan for and still manage to come away with efficient performances. This team is going ram the run game down your throat. The Cowboys will keep you honest though, and if your secondary begins cheating they will catch you sleeping with a deep attack. This is what makes them so difficult to game plan and they can catch the best defenses with this strategy. Wyoming is going to have to get creative in order to produce against this elite Aztecs defense, but are expecting an extremely low-scoring game anyways. San Diego State's defense is a cause for concern, but their offense is completely anemic and we will support the plus-value in what our model has simulated an extremely close 1-point game. 

 

We are siding with the offense over the defense in this coin flip of a matchup. As we mentioned, the Aztecs offense is anemic. Their passing offense is near dead last in the nation. One of San Diego State's offense low-lights this season is putting up just 6 points versus an equally bad Weber State team. 

 

Let's back the more proven money maker in Wyoming who are 6-1 ATS (85.7%) ATS dating back to last season. This includes an 8-1 (88.8%) straight up run in their last 9 games. They are 14-3 (82.3%) ATS  in their last 17 games this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State has been a money pit for bettors going 4-9 ATS (30.7%) ATS in their last 13 games dating back to last season. They are 0-5 ATS (0%) in their last 5 games at home and 1-4 (20%) straight up in their last 5 games against Mountain West conference.