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NCAAF PICKS OCT 5 - SATURDAYS FULL CARD & ANALYSIS

October 5, 2019

NCAAF EXPERT PICKS

UTAH STATE +28: 1 UNIT (-115)

 

UTA-ST EBN RANK - 37th

UTA-ST OFF RANK - 20th

UTA-ST DEF RANK - 53rd

 

LSU EBN RANK - 7th

LSU OFF RANK - 4th

LSU DEF RANK - 51st

 

EBN Simulated Score

LSU 44 Utah State 30

 

We have identified this spread as the most discrepant of Week 6. LSU is certainly a top-10 ranked team, but Utah State is far from a pushover and our system has simulated a score within two TD's, a significant 14 points off of the spread. Utah State is ranked 37th on our EBN rankings, with an impressive and productive 20th ranked offense. Their defense is extremely comparable to LSU's with respective 53rd and 51st rankings on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index). These are not quite metrics which warrant such a steep spread. Both teams' strength's are powerful offenses and this is destined for a shootout in which LSU will likely allow Utah State to score too many points to cover the 28.

 

This is the 3rd time we have supported Utah State and they fail to disappoint. The Aggies are 4-1 (80%) ATS this season. We continue to hype emerging star QB Jordan Love. Love can be volatile and has thrown 5 INT's this season, but he is a scoring machine and has already thrown for 1200+ yards. As a team, the Aggies are averaging 38.5 points and 533 total yards per game. This LSU team is all offensive firepower, but they have some significant defensive efficiencies. Their secondary alone has allowed 900 passing yards in the last 3 games and as a full unit they have only forced 4 turnovers this season. These lackluster defensive numbers has been versus abysmal teams with an average 159th ranked QOC (Quality of Competition). Utah State is by far the best team and the most dangerous offense they have had to play this season. This opens the door for Jordan Love to have monstrous game and further propel his name up the NFL draft rankings.

 

NOTRE DAME -46.5: 1 UNIT (-110)

 

ND EBN RANK - 10th

ND OFF RANK - 17th

ND DEF RANK - 14th

 

BG EBN RANK - 238th

BG OFF RANK - 202nd

BG DEF RANK - 218th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Notre Dame 60, Bowling Green 0

 

This will be the biggest beating of the week and Notre Dame should cruise past the intimidating -46.5 spread. Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the nation ranking 238th on our overall EBN rankings, almost impressively putting up the most abysmal metrics offensively and defensively versus extremely low average 169th ranked QOC (Quality of Competition). Notre Dame has been highly profitable and extremely impressive and are shooting up our EBN rankings, breaking into the top-10.

 

Versus this abysmal QOC, Bowling Green is averaging just 3.9 yards per play on offense and allowing a comical 7.3 yards per play on defense. Again this -3.4 yard discrepancy is among the worst margins in the nation. Notre Dame has been elite on both sides of the ball. Defensively they are absolutely locking down opposing offenses allowing just 18 points per game, and have already had extremely difficult games versus 3 seed Georgia and 18th seed Virginia. 

 

There is not much else to analyze here. These teams are on complete different planets. Bowling Green is 1-4 (20%) ATS in their last 5 games and have been outscored by a laughable 149-27 (-122) point margin in their last 3 games alone. This was versus Kent State, Louisiana Tech and Kansas State. Notre Dame is going to blow the doors of Bowling Green and our model doesn't even simulate them scoring 1 point.

 

RICE +9.5: 1 UNIT

RICE MONEYLINE: 0.5 UNIT (+285)

 

RICE EBN RANK - 232nd

RICE OFF RANK - 168th

RICE DEF RANK - 79th

 

UAB EBN RANK - 134th

UAB OFF RANK - 179th

UAB DEF RANK - 95th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Rice 21, UAB 19

 

Rice has yet to secure a victory this season, but they have been a stable money maker for bettors going 6-1-1 ATS (85.7%) in their last 8 games dating back to last season. This includes a 5-0 (100%) ATS record in their last 5 games on the road. The +9.5 spread seems like a layup as our model has predicted a low-scoring, straight-up, first win of the season for Rice. Rice may seem uninspiring sitting 232nd on our EBN rankings, but they have a respectable 79th ranked defense on our TODI (Total Defensive Index) and are on the rise. 

 

Meanwhile, UAB, who started the season 66th on our overall EBN rankings, is rapidly declining and has fallen to 134th in just 5 weeks. We picked up on their decline last week fading them as favorites versus then 174th ranked Western Kentucky and are looking to double-down on their decline in Week 6 at phenomenal +285 value. 

 

Rice has had a number of impressive performances this season despite facing a stiff average 43rd ranked QOC (Quality of Competition). They kept games versus Army (EBN rank - 71st), Baylor (EBN rank - 40th), Louisiana Tech (EBN rank - 70th) all within one score, including a tough 3-point OT loss to Louisiana Tech last week in which they outgained them 338 yards to 294. Rice is better than appears and their defensive has been a significant bright spot holding some above-average QOC to a respectable 18-21 point range. UAB is rapidly declining and we expect them to struggle to score en route to Rice's first win of the season. 

 

TULANE -2.5: 1 UNIT (-125)

 

TUL EBN RANK - 50th

TUL OFF RANK - 43rd

TUL DEF RANK - 33rd

 

ARMY EBN RANK - 71st

ARMY OFF RANK - 129th

ARMY DEF RANK - 58th

 

EBN Simulated Score

Tulane 28, Army 14

 

Tulane has been highly profitable for bettors this season going 4-1 ATS (80%) and we will be supporting them again in Week 6. It is extremely rare that Army is home underdogs at West Point and this is undoubtedly shaved some additional points of this spread in our favor. Our model has simulated a 14-point Tulane victory and we are thrilled to support them at this reasonable -2.5 number. 

 

Army matches up terribly versus Tulane. They have an aggressive run-heavy offenses and QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. has only attempted 12 passes ALL season. He has ran the ball 39 times, but these 39 carries have been destructive for opposing defenses going for 121 yards and 3 TD's. In addition to him, RB's Connor Slomka and Kell Walker have a combined 422 rushing yards and as a team the Black Knights average 300 rushing yards and 4 ground TD's per game. The bad news for Army is that Tulane has a significantly above-average 33rd ranked defense on our TODI (Total Defensive Index). This unit's biggest strength is their explosive defensive line that is allowing under 150 rushing yards and 1 ground TD per game. They have already recorded 7 sacks and a staggering 22 tackles for losses. Hopkins Jr. also missed last game with a leg injury and his health and mobility are likely not at 100%. 

 

Meanwhile, the Green Wave have a deadly ground game of their own which averages 273.3 yards and 3 ground TD's per game. QB Justin McMillan is also a dual-threat who already leads the team with 4 rushing TD's and 245 rushing yards. Tulane and Army are similar teams, however, the Black Knights are just way worse on both sides of the ball. Tulane should roll to a double-digit victory in this one. 

 

PENN STATE -29: 1 UNIT (-110)

PENN EBN RANK - 9th

PENN OFF RANK - 5th

PENN DEF RANK - 3rd

 

PUR EBN RANK - 103rd

PUR OFF RANK - 74th

PUR DEF RANK - 91st

 

EBN Simulated Score

Penn State 44, Purdue 7

 

Purdue is abysmal this season and fail to crack the top-100 on our EBN rankings, while Penn State has cracked our elite top-10 at number 9. An already abysmal Purdue team has just been decimated by injuries and this game will effectively be men against boys. Boilermakers QB Elijah Sindelar and their best player in WR Rondale Moore were both injured on the same play last week making a highly inexperienced offense even younger this week versus one of the best defenses in the nation. Penn State is ranked 3rd on our TODI (Total Defensive Index). Their defense hasn't been able to recover from the losses of LB Markus Bailey and DL Lorenzo Neal. These are critical injuries at critical positions on both sides of the ball and Purdue will simply be methodically out-classed en route to what our model has simulated as a 3-point victory. 

 

Penn State has been a machine with an elite 3rd ranked defense and elite 5th ranked offense. Their offense is going to destroy Purdue's secondary which has been ripped to shreds so far, allowing 420 yards to Vanderbilt last week and giving up a staggering 18 yards per pass versus Minnesota. As a complete unit, Purdue's defense is allowing an abysmal 450 total yards per game. The Boilermakers are 1-4 (20%) ATS this season. Their decimated offense and abysmal defense is a recipe for disaster versus one of the best teams in the nation in Penn State. 

 

NORTH CAROLINA -11: 1 UNIT (-110)

 

UNC EBN RANK - 52nd

UNC OFF RANK - 61st

UNC DEF RANK - 23rd

 

G-TECH EBN RANK - 158th

G-TECH OFF RANK - 166th

G-TECH DEF RANK - 81st

 

EBN Simulated Score

North Carolina 30, Georgia Tech 7

 

Georgia Tech has been a money pit for bettors going 0-7 ATS (0%) in their last 7 games dating back to last season and we are looking to fade them again. North Carolina almost stunned Clemson in a 1-point defeat last week and their 3 consecutive losses have come by just a combined 10 points. This is a good football team and they should be able to easily take care of an abysmal Georgia Tech team which is ranked 158th on our overall EBN rankings. 

 

Georgia Tech has one of the worst offenses in the nation averaging just 13.5 points per game versus extremely low 108th average ranked QOC (Quality of Competition). They are in a transition year under Geoff Collins and he has QB James Graham in no-mans land throwing the ball more than twice as often than last season with no results (21.8 attempts per game compared to just 9.7 attempts per game last year). Georgia Tech put up a measly 2 points versus an 82nd ranked Temple team last week in which Graham struggled tremendously failing to produce a TD, throwing an INT and finishing with a passing completion of just 41.7%. Tobias Oliver also gets snaps as QB but he is a one-dimensional mobile QB and is also not much of a passing threat. This offense is lost and ranks 166th on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index). 

 

North Carolina QB Sam Howell has been terrific this season and has thrown for 1168 yards, 11 TD's and just 2 INT's. He threw for 2 TD's last week and almost led UNC to an upset of the top-ranked team in the country. Georgia Tech will feel like a high school team compared to Clemson and unless they seriously play down to their competition, there is no reason why the Tar Heels don't come away with a 20+ point victory. 

 

IOWA +4: 1 UNIT (-110)

IOWA MONEYLINE: 0.5 UNIT (+150)

 

IOWA EBN RANK 15th

IOWA OFF RANK 49th

IOWA DEF RANK 8th

 

MICH EBN RANK 28

MICH OFF RANK 30th

MICH DEF RANK 27th

 

EBN Simulated Score 

Iowa 23. Michigan 21

 

Michigan has the name brand value in this matchup, but look for 14th seeded Iowa to take the victory here. Nate Stanley is one of the most underrated Big-Ten QB and has thrown 136 attempts this season without an INT in 2019. He has an impressive 64.4% completion rate. This can also be attributed to an elite offensive line which features Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs who are both projected to be high 2020 NFL Draft selections. Stanley has thrown 8 TD's this season and 60 in his career, putting him 2 shy of Drew Tate for 2nd on Iowa's all-time list. Stanley is 21-9 (70%) as a starter in his Iowa career. He leads a balanced attack and their rushing attack is highly efficient as well averaging 5.2 yards per carry. This balanced dual-threat offense is extremely difficult to game plan for and we expect a declining Michigan team to struggle versus the Hawkeyes on Saturday. 

 

Michigan's offense has been far below average and we expect them to start drastically sliding down our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) rankings. Shae Patterson has been mediocre and they are now ranked 95th in the nation with just 130.5 rushing yards per game. In the first 3 quarters versus Rutgers abysmal 110th ranked rushing defense they were averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. Iowa has an elite top-10 defense ranked 8th on our TODI (Total Defensive Index) rankings. 

 

Michigan has been a money pit for bettors going just 1-7 (12.5%) ATS in their last 8 games dating back to last season. They have struggled versus tougher QOC winning by just 3 to an average Army team, before convincingly losing by 21 to Wisconsin last week. Iowa is better on both sides of the ball and we expect them to edge out a victory over a disappointing Wolverines squad.

 

 

BUFFALO +3.5: 1 UNIT (-115)

BUFFALO MONEYLINE: 0.5 UNIT (+145)

 

BUF EBN RANK 126th

BUF OFF RANK 95th

BUF DEF RANK 126th

 

OHIO EBN RANK 179th

OHIO OFF RANK 92nd

OHIO DEF RANK 101st

 

EBN Simulated Score

Buffalo 30, Ohio 30

 

Straight value play. Both teams are abysmal and are 1-3 (25%) ATS, but Buffalo sits +53 ranks ahead of Ohio on our overall EBN rankings. They have been successful at home winning 5 consecutive games and have great head-to-head success versus their MAC East rivals in Ohio going 5-1 ATS (83.3%) versus them in the last 6 meetings. This game is a snooze fest, but presents some nice home underdog value we are going to capitalize on.