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NFL PICKS OCT 13 - SUNDAY'S FULL CARD & ANALYSIS

October 13, 2019

NFL EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

*EBN Rank - Expert Betting Network's league rank according to our model

 

*OFF - League ranked offense according to our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) model

 

*DEF - League ranked defense according to our TODI (Total Defensive Index Model)

 

*QOC - Quality of Competition. Average ranked opponent according to our EBN rank

 

 WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3.5: 2 UNITS (-110)

 

 

WSH EBN RANK - 29th

WSH OFF RANK - 29th

WSH DEF RANK - 29th

WSH QOC RANK - 15th

 

MIA EBN RANK - 32nd

MIA OFF RANK - 32nd

MIA DEF RANK - 32nd

MIA QOC RANK - 16th

 

EBN Simulated Score -

Washington 32, Miami 18

 

We will be supporting the Redskins in a battle of the basement game between two winless teams. As bad as Washington are themselves, our model has so little respect for the Miami Dolphins that it is predicting a 14-point Redskins victory. Miami ranks dead last in offensive and defensive efficiency and are primed to lose by double-digits to even our 29th place team on our overall EBN rankings. Not only do the Dolphins lose every game, they get absolutely blown out leading to an 0-7 ATS record in their last 7 games dating back to last season. Miami's -137 point differential is one of the worst in NFL history through 4 games. This is one of the worst teams the NFL has ever seen and they could very well be on pace for an 0-16 season. 

 

Miami's offense is pathetic. They have scored just 2 TD's and 4 FG's all season and rank dead last in every single crucial predictive offensive metric. This is a 32nd rank in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, yards per play, 3rd down %, big plays (passing plays 20+ yards, rushing plays 10+ yards), and of course points. They are averaging less than a TD per game. 

 

The Dolphins defense might be even worse. Again, they are ranked dead last in every crucial defensive metric. Total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, yards per play allowed, 3rd down % against, big plays against, and again, of course points against. They are allowing 41.3 points per game. Dolphins games start off bad, and they only get worse as this abysmal team sends out their defense after a scoreless offensive drive, They have been outscore 81-0 in just 4 second halfs this season. 

 

The Dolphins are so bad that they make the Redskins' 29th ranked metrics look like the Patriots. It is not often you get to fade one of the worst teams in NFL history by under a touchdown and we are looking forward to capitalizing accordingly.

 

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +6.5: 2 UNITS (-105)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+240)


 

PIT EBN RANK -  27th

PIT OFF RANK - 21st

PIT DEF RANK - 9th

PIT QOC RANK - 12th

 

LAC EBN RANK - 24th

LAC OFF RANK - 21st

LAC DEF RANK - 13th

LAC QOC RANK - 18th

 

EBN Simulated Score -

Pittsburgh 18, Los Angeles Chargers 16

 

The Steelers QB problems is driving their value down and is something we are looking to capitalize on for the second week in a row. Since Ben Roethlisberger went down, Pittsburgh immediately became a system team meaning it does't matter if Mason Rudolph or Devlin Hodges is starting, as long as they are somewhat serviceable and efficient. Both offenses have been anemic anyways. Even with Pittsburgh's offensive problems, their defense and San Diego's own inefficiencies themselves provides enough reason to support the Steelers in this spot. Our model has simulated a close, two-point victory for Pittsburgh and we are looking to capitalize on the plus spread and moneyline value.

 

The Steelers are 1-4, but keep in mind the QOC (Quality of Competition) Pittsburgh has had to play this season. They have losses to powerhouses New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Seattle. Their only game versus low-QOC in Cincinnati they dominated in a 27-3 victory. A robotical system offense with safe, low-risk, short passes and runs combined with an above average defense will allow Pittsburgh to contend and challenge for a win versus a mediocre Chargers team. 

 

The Chargers are 1-6-1 ATS (14.2%) in their last 8 games dating back to last season and have a terrible track record versus the Steelers going 1-5 (16.6%) ATS in their last 6 games versus Pittsburgh at their stadium in California. Also, everyone is discussing Pittsburgh's QB injuries which we believe is an overblown public narrative. The real narrative is to check the Chargers extensive IR list. There is low-key more crucial injuries on the their IR than Pittsburgh. Notable crucial TE's, WR's, CB's, Safeties and offensive and defensive line members are out making a full TD spread for an already mediocre team discrepant. A solid defensive game and a serviceable outing from Hodges makes a Pittsburgh win a reasonable possibility. 

 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +3: 2 UNITS (-105)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS MONEYLINE 1 UNIT (+145)


SF EBN RANK - 2nd 

SF OFF RANK - 2nd

SF DEF RANK - 4th

SF QOC RANK - 23rd

 

LAR EBN RANK - 3rd

LAR OFF RANK - 3rd

LAR DEF RANK - 25th

LAR QOC RANK - 10th

 

EBN Simulated Score -

San Francisco 32, Los Angeles Rams 23

 

San Francisco is the best rushing team in the league averaging a highly impressive 200 ground yards per game. They have multiple weapons in the backfield. Matt Breida has been incredible averaging 6.5 yards per carry on 52 attempts. His 5.22 yards per carry career average trails only Bo Jackson and Jamaal Charles for the best mark in NFL history among RB's with at least 300 carries. Breida isn't being talked about enough. Behind him, Raheem Mostart is also killing it averaging 5.8 yards per carry on 41 attempts and now they have added Tevin Coleman into the mix who has quickly added 120 yards, 1 TD on just 22 attempts. This running game is multi-faceted, hard to gameplan for and is a product of a stellar offensive line which is also helping Jimmy Garrapolo become a franchise QB and one of the most efficient in the NFL this season. Jimmy G is now 11-2 (84.6%) as the 49ers starting QB. 


It doesn't appear to be a fluke anymore and it has become evident that there is something seriously wrong with the Rams defense. Their front 6 led by Aaron Donald remains elite, but they are not getting the job done and the secondary is a disaster. The Rams rank just 23rd in sacks per game (2.2), and 26th in points allowed per game (26.8). 

 

The 49ers have turned some heads early this season, but they are still not being given enough credit. They sit 2nd on our overall EBN rankings below only New England. They possess the 2nd ranked offense on our TOFI (Total Offensive Index) and 4th on our TODI (Total Defensive Index). They are quietly one of the best teams in the NFL and have also been a consistent money maker for bettors in recent history. They are 4-1 ATS (80%) this season and 6-1 (85.7%) ATS in their last 7 games dating back to last season. The 49ers are also 5-2 (71.4%) ATS in their last 7 games versus the Rams. 

 

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3: 2 UNITS (-120)


MIN EBN RANK - 11th

MIN OFF RANK - 18th

MIN DEF RANK - 3rd

MIN QOC RANK - 15th

 

PHI EBN RANK - 18th

PHI OFF RANK - 10th

PHI DEF RANK - 20th

PHI QOC RANK - 19th

 

EBN Simulated Score -

Minnesota 26, Philadelphia 18