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NFL PICKS OCT 14 - DETROIT LIONS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS PICK & ANALYSIS

October 14, 2019

NFL EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

DETROIT LIONS +4: 2 UNITS (-110)

DET EBN RANK - 9th
DET OFF RANK - 13th
DET DEF RANK - 15th
DET QOC RANK - 18th

GB EBN RANK - 5th
GB OFF RANK - 5th
GB DEF RANK - 10th
GB QOC RANK - 17th

EBN Simulated Score -
Green Bay 28, Detroit 26

The Lions have been surprisingly impressive this season and have broken into the top-10 of our overall EBN rankings. They have are 4-1 ATS (80%) in their last 5 games and have had great success versus their NFC North rival Packers going 4-1 straight up (80%) in the last 5 games. The Lions are 4-1 ATS (80%) in their last 5 games on the road and 4-1 ATS (80%) in their last 5 games at Lambeau Field.

Both teams have showed they can put up points and have above average defenses. Matt Stafford has had some of the best performances in his career versus Green Baby averaging 290 passing yards with 34 TD's in 17 games. Stafford has thrown 2 or more TD's in 9 straight meetings versus the Packers dating back to 2009. Only Dan Marino versus the Jets in 1991-1997 has gone 10 consecutive games with 2 or more TD passes against a single opponent.

One glaring inefficiency about the Packers we will be watching in this game is their 27th ranked 30.5% 3rd down efficiency. The Packers are the first team since 2010 to start a season 4-1 while converting on less than 31% of their 3rd downs. Their inability to extend drives is bound to catch up to them and giving an efficient Matt Stafford ample time with the ball will hurt them tonight.