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NHL PICKS APRIL 19 - TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS VS BOSTON BRUINS PICK & ANALYSIS

April 19, 2019

NHL EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+125)

 

POSSESSION:

Possession times have fluctuated back-and-forth, but have been extremely even. Leafs currently have the

slightest possession advantage through 4 games:

 

SCORING CHANCES:

 

Similar to possession times, Leafs and Bruins have traded comparable amount of chances (resulting in a comparable

amount of goals scored). Leafs currently have a slight advantage in amount of scoring chances generated.

 

 

SERIES DATA:

 

Goals For %

TOR 48%

BOS 52%

 

Scoring Chances For %

TOR 53.64%

BOS 46.36%

 

High-Danger Scoring Chances For %

TOR 52.22%

BOS 47.78%

 

Corsi For %

TOR 50.79%

BOS 49.21%

 

Save %

Andersen .914

Rask .911

 

As we predicted in our NHL Playoff Preview, Leafs-Bruins is holding up to be the closest series in the first round. Home ice has yet to prove to be an advantage. Depending on how our series bet is playing out, we will likely be taking the value and supporting the underdog in this series from here on out. The Boston Bruins have a +1 goal differential through 4 games. Rask (.911) and Andersen (.914) have been nearly identical, with a slight advantage to Andersen. Possession time is nearly identical. The Leafs have generated +7.28% more scoring chances, and +4.52% more scoring chances in crucial, high-danger areas. For how close this series is, we are likely due to see overtime at some point, and tonight could be the game. Let's take the plus-value and hope we get the puck-luck, which is a critical non-evaluative factor in close games like these.