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NHL PICKS APRIL 26 - CAROLINA HURRICANES VS NEW YORK ISLANDERS PICK & ANALYSIS

April 26, 2019

NHL EXPERT PICKS - FULL ANALYSIS ATTACHED

 

CAROLINA HURRICANES SERIES WINNER: 1 UNIT (+100)

CAROLINA HURRICANES GAME 1 MONEYLINE: 1 UNIT (+115)

 

FIRST ROUND DATA

Goals For %

CAR 51.22%

NYI 70%

Scoring Chances For %

CAR 50.57%

NYI 50.28%

High-Danger Scoring Chances For %

CAR 55.34%

NYI 49.38%

Corsi For %

CAR 55.08%

NYI 46%

Save %

Mrazek .894

Lehner .955

This will be a fascinating series to watch. Lacking elite high-end talent, both the Hurricanes and Islanders are effective from being an analytical positive team; but in different ways. Carolina maximizes possession time, shot generation and scoring chances. New York traps defensively, suffocates opposing scoring chances and capitalizes off turnover with minimal possession time. One approach is going to have to prevail. The Hurricanes possess good underdog value and are likely going to be the more aggressive team that generates the most scoring chances.

SERIES X-FACTOR

Possession Time:

The Islanders are not afraid to let their opponent handle the puck for the majority of the game. They were one of the worst possession teams this season ranking 26th with a 47.52% Corsi For rating. Despite being dominated in possession, the Islanders have had an elite ability to keep the puck on the perimeter and outside of high-danger scoring areas. This is how their previously mediocre goaltenders have thrived this season and how they have maintained one of the best defensive units in the NHL.

 We continue to preach about how the Hurricanes are an ‘analytics dream’ this season. Teams like Carolina that fit this model are not the ‘be-all and end-all’ and can be beaten with high-end, elite talent and timely scoring. However, they survived the epitome of that point-of-view with Ovechkin and the Capitals and actually match up very well versus the Islanders. The Hurricanes were the best possession team in the NHL with a 1st ranked 55.13% Corsi For rating. Based on season averages we can expect Carolina to out-possess New York by nearly 8% of the series. Over 7-games this will eventually result in the ice being tilted into the Islanders zone. They have thrived by preventing the high-danger scoring chances against, but the amount of scoring chances Carolina will generate should lead to an inevitable collapse. As they say; you have to be good to be lucky, and we can see the Islanders being the recipient of bad goals strictly due to the amount of volume of chances that Carolina is going to throw their way. The Islanders generated 462 less shots than Carolina this year. We expect the Islanders to face a barrage of shots every game of this series. We will find out how good Robin Lehner really is in this series because he is going to be busy.