< View All Articles

NHL System Play Of The Year Cashes In Large

November 2, 2017

Our largest system play of the NHL season cashes in LARGE on Wednesday night. Check out our write-up sent to members hours prior to gametime:

We have identified a large, confident play for Wednesday night action. We will be cashing in on the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight.

After losing 3 in a row, the public is currently second-guessing Toronto’s status as one of the NHL’s elite squads. Frederik Andersen’s ability as a starter is being questioned and their defensive liabilities are being highlighted. A prominent Toronto media member wrote an article yesterday entitled ‘The Toronto Maple Leafs Are Broken.”

Overreaction 101.

We are going to use this temporary public confidence downswing to capitalize on a betting line that should realistically be in the -150 to -170 range.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS ANALYSIS –

Further analysis shows Toronto is in fact an elite team. Their offensive prowess is no secret. They rank 2nd in goals for, 6th in power play %, and 1st in the most crucial offensive stats (besides actual, concrete goal scoring): expected goals for (xGF) and high danger scoring chances. On a nightly basis, Toronto is generating the most chances in the league from lethal situations such as breakaways, one-timers, rebounds and open looks from the slot.

Let’s take a look at their goaltending and defense, which have been the subject of much negative speculation. Further analysis here shows some defensive criticism is warranted, but they are not the tire fire that is being suggested. They rank 16th in both high danger scoring chances given up, and high danger goals against given up, placing them in the middle echelon of the league. A string of bad games from Frederik Andersen in October have placed them in the bottom 5 (4th) in goals given up. The encouraging news for Toronto is that they are not giving up an abundance of high quality scoring chances and even a slight improvement from Frederik Andersen will give them a massive edge every night. Starting in November last season, Andersen’s save % skyrocketed from nearly identical numbers to what it is now (0.896%) into the (0.925%) range. We are confident in Andersen’s abilities tonight specifically. He had a phenomenal game against San Jose on Monday, stopping 36 of 38 shots, 11 of these being high danger chances. He is extremely familiar playing in the West Coast, and we expect him to bring the heat vs. his former team (who has struggled significantly offensively).

ANAHEIM DUCKS ANALYSIS –

While they just had a successful East Coast road trip (which has only helped keep down the betting line), further analysis shows the injury-plagued Anaheim Ducks are struggling offensively. They have a -55 corsi differential (are being out-shot, out-possessed), and even more alarming for them, they rank dead last in high danger scoring chances and expected goals for (xGF). They have the second-worst powerplay in the league, converting on only 12.1% of their chances. They also take the 4th most penalties in the league, which doesn’t bode well vs. Toronto’s lethal powerplay. While they have been missing significant pieces up-front all season such as Kesler and Eaves, captain Ryan Getzlaf has now been ruled out for tonight, which won’t help their goal-scoring prowess. Their top-6 forwards tonight have a measly-combined 17 goals (2.8 per player).

Defensively, the Ducks have been fairly similar to the Leafs, if not worse. Gibson has been better, which has helped keep the puck out of the net. However, they are ranked similar to the Leafs in high danger scoring chances given up at 15th, but are 27th in high danger goals against. This shows Gibson struggles to stop pucks in the lethal scoring areas, which is troublesome for the Ducks, as Toronto is the best in the league at generating these types of chances.

Expect Toronto to heavily out-possess and out-chance Anaheim tonight. Their offenses are on completely different ends of the spectrum. In addition to this, the Ducks are missing their best offensive catalyst in Ryan Getzlaf. Simply just a ‘good’ game from Frederik Andersen vs. his former team will make this a lock win for the Leafs.

AUXILLIARY ANALYSIS –

Anaheim is playing their first home game after a 4 game Eastern Conference road trip. Overwhelming data collected over the last 5 years shows a team’s first home game after a cross-Conference road stretch is one of the hardest to play.

Mike Babcock: press conferences and media reporting from practices show he is livid with Toronto’s recent slide. Expect him to have the Leafs come out firing tonight. He despises poor work ethic. He doesn’t lose 4 in a row very often.

Centre Depth: No Ryan Kesler. No Ryan Getzlaf. This leaves Rickard Rakell, Antoine Vermette, Derek Grant and Kalle Kossila. Who will shutdown the Auston Matthews line? Kadri, Marleau, Bozak are Toronto’s other 3C tonight, which will give this Anaheim group fits.

Betting Line: Opening at -105 for Toronto, it has already climbed early afternoon 20 points to -125. With our sportsbook monitoring sources showing an almost even split in public betting (only 6% more favoring the Leafs), this is a good sign.

 

THE PLAY: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS MONEYLINE (20 UNITS)

Congrats to all members who cashed in large on this confident NHL System Play. $100/unit members cashed in $1800 alone on the Toronto Maple Leafs win over the Anaheim Ducks. Plays continue tonight. Sign up on the website now or email us at expertpicksinc@live.com to discuss additional information about or company and investing process!