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TORONTO RAPTORS/NEW ORLEANS PELICANS UNDER 232 POINTS

March 8, 2019

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TORONTO RAPTORS/NEW ORLEANS PELICANS UNDER 232 POINTS: 1 UNIT (-110)

The total has fallen under in 4 of the Pelicans’ last 6 games (66.6%), and in 12 of their last 18 games at home (66.6%). The Raptors are still seeking chemistry from their trade deadline acquisitions and are in the midst of a significant offensive regression averaging a 27th ranked 107.4 points/game over their last 5 contests. In this same span, the Pelicans possess a top-10 defense in terms of overall efficiency and are holding opponents to 108.6 points/100 possessions. The Raptors current offensive pace of play has dropped significantly and they are averaging a 25th ranked 97.7 possessions/game, scoring 108.3 points/game. This is right at the Pelicans current defensive efficiency rating and New Orleans will have a great opportunity to hold Toronto below the 110 point range for the third consecutive game.

LAST 5 GAMES PLAYED DATA:

Points Scored/Game

TOR 107.4 (NBA Rank: T-27th)

NOP 117 (NBA Rank: 6th)

Total Offensive Efficiency (Points Scored/100 Possessions)

TOR 108.3 (NBA Rank: 21st)

NOP 109.9 (NBA Rank: 14th)

Points Allowed/Game

TOR 108.8 (NBA Rank: 11th)

NOP 115.6 (NBA Rank: 20th)

Total Defensive Efficiency (Points Allowed/100 Possessions)

TOR 109.9 (NBA Rank: 15th)

NOP 108.6 (NBA Rank: 9th)

Pace (Possessions/48 Minutes)

TOR 97.1 (NBA Rank: 25th)

NOP 106.5 (NBA Rank: 1st)

 

DENVER NUGGETS/GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 235.5 POINTS: 2 UNITS (-110)

This is another over-valued Warriors total and we are looking forward to capitalizing on what should prove to be a discrepant number. Both teams have current average offensive metrics, and Denver possesses a top-10 defensive unit. The total falls under in 55.6% of Denver’s games overall (NBA Rank: 7th), and in 63.3% of their games on the road (NBA Rank: 2nd). The Warriors are consistently overvalued on their totals, especially at home playing at the Oracle where the total has fallen under in 56.2% of their games (NBA Rank: 8th). Over their last 5 games, Denver and Golden State are going through offensive regressions and are averaging 19th and 16th ranked offenses in terms of points/game. The Warriors have failed to eclipse the 100-point mark in 2 out of their last 3 games, both against top-10 defenses in Boston, Orlando. The Nuggets are currently 9th in points allowed/game (106.7), and 7th when it comes to overall efficiency. Over their last 5 games played, both the Nuggets and Warriors are averaging -7 points below the crucial 118 needed for both teams to contribute to pushing this total over. Denver can position themselves to steal the number 1 spot in the Western Conference with a win and we are expecting a tighter, lower-scoring game than the Warriors are used to because of the importance. The total has fallen under the number in all 5 of the Nuggets’ last 5 games (100%), and in 4 of their last 5 games on the road (80%). The total has fallen under the number in 5 of Golden State’s last 6 games overall (83.3%). 

LAST 5 GAMES PLAYED DATA:

Points Scored/Game

DEN 110.8 (NBA Rank: 19th)

GSW 111.4 (NBA Rank: 16th)

Total Offensive Efficiency (Points Scored/100 Possessions)

DEN 109 (NBA Rank: T-18th)

GSW 109.1 (NBA Rank: 17th)

Points Allowed/Game

DEN 108.6 (NBA Rank: 9th)

GSW 116.8 (NBA Rank: 23rd)

Total Defensive Efficiency (Points Allowed/100 Possessions)

DEN 106.7 (NBA Rank: 7th)

GSW 114.2 (NBA Rank: 24th)

Pace (Possessions/48 Minutes)

DEN 101.8 (NBA Rank: 12th)

GSW 102.3 (NBA Rank: 9th)

 

 

Best of luck